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The world price of crude oil is expected to average $93.59 per barrel in 2026, representing a 38.2% increase from the $67.74 per barrel recorded in 2025. This increase is being driven by hostilities that broke out in Iran in late February 2026. A major consequence of these hostilities has been that the Strait of Hormuz, a major bottleneck for shipments out of the Persian Gulf, has effectively been closed to most shipping. This has been driving up oil prices as the market has been pricing in expectations of a future shortage; as the conflict has dragged on, that shortage has become more imminent, and the risk that oil prices will be higher for longer has increased.Prior to the conflict in Iran, the global oil market was facing oversupply, characterized by OPEC+ production increases, rising non-OPEC output, and concerns about demand growth. Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, slashed December crude prices for Asian buyers in response to oversupply conditions, signaling expectations of continued price pressure.The five-year period from 2021 to 2026 witnessed extraordinary volatility in crude oil prices. The compound annual growth rate of 2.6% during this period masks dramatic year-to-year swings driven by the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and shifts in production policy. In 2020, prices collapsed to $41.77 per barrel as pandemic lockdowns decimated global fuel demand and storage capacity approached limits. The subsequent recovery saw prices surge to $69.25 in 2021 and peak at $96.36 in 2022, driven by post-pandemic demand recovery, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. A June memorandum of understanding briefly looked like it would reopen the strait, but July has seen a renewal of hostilities.The 2023-2024 period brought renewed price volatility, with crude averaging $80.60 in 2023 before moderating to $79.17 in 2024. OPEC+ maintained production discipline through voluntary cuts, with Saudi Arabia bearing the largest reductions to support prices. However, rising output from Iran and Venezuela, both exempt from OPEC+ quotas, along with strong U.S. shale production that reached near-record levels of 13.6 million barrels per day, offset these cuts. The transition to 2025 saw accelerating price declines as OPEC+ members began unwinding voluntary production cuts.
Curious about what drives these trends? IBISWorld's analyst coverage on the world price of crude oil includes detailled analysis on the current performance, outlook and industries affected.
1980-2032
The world price of crude oil represents the benchmark price for petroleum in international markets, measured in nominal U.S. dollars per barrel. This metric reflects a composite or weighted average of major pricing benchmarks, including Brent crude (the European benchmark), West Texas Intermediate (WTI, the U.S. benchmark), and the OPEC basket. Crude oil pricing reflects the intersection of global supply dynamics, geopolitical events, OPEC+ production decisions, inventory levels, refining capacity constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. Data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund.
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The world price of crude oil in the US in 2026 was $93.59 per barrel.
The world price of crude oil in the US grew by 6.21% in 2026.
IBISWorld’s data and analysis on world price of crude oil in the US includes forecasted growth rates over the next five years.