Producer Price Index: Coarse grains in the US - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Coarse grain prices are slipping again in 2026, falling 2.9% to 175.88, as ample supplies from 2025 harvests outweigh a new round of cost and supply pressures. A record US corn crop and large global barley supplies have weighed on feed grain prices through much of the year, keeping buyers well stocked. Firmer sorghum prices late in the year are limiting the decline as producers grapple with sharply higher fuel and fertilizer costs that lift breakeven levels across the supply chain. These pressures are closely tied to renewed spikes in global energy benchmarks and fertilizer prices linked to conflicts in the Middle East and the ongoing fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which have raised freight and input costs for grain growers worldwide. Drought and extreme heat across the Plains have also sharply reduced the US sorghum harvest, tightening stocks. Higher production costs are feeding through to offer prices, preventing a steeper drop in the coarse grain index.Coarse grain prices have fallen at a compound annual rate of 8.6% over the five years through 2026, following considerable volatility. Prices surged in 2022 when the Ukraine war disrupted Black Sea exports and sent global grain benchmarks to multi-year highs. The index began to retreat in 2023 as alternative exporters stepped up, trade routes adjusted and global food commodity prices broadly slid back toward pre-shock levels. Improving harvests and softer demand growth kept prices on a downward path through 2024 and 2025, with a record US corn crop in 2025 adding to the pressure, but the correction remained incomplete as lingering geopolitical tensions, elevated energy costs and recurrent weather shocks prevented a full reversion to earlier price levels.Weather and climate risks have been a defining feature of the period, keeping markets on edge and limiting the latest decline. More frequent droughts and heatwaves in key producing regions are eroding yield potentials for barley, oats and sorghum, limiting the degree to which larger planted areas can translate into looser supplies. These shocks magnify the impact of already elevated input costs, as farmers facing stressed fields require more fertilizer, water and energy to sustain output, yet still risk smaller harvests.Prices are also responding to shifting trade patterns and intensifying competition among major exporters. Australia's record barley harvests and renewed sales to China have intensified competition in global barley markets, while Brazil shipped its first large-scale sorghum cargoes to China in 2026, challenging the US's dominant position in that market. These dynamics have reduced the automatic premium once associated with US supplies and contributed to sharper price swings as importers switch between origins based on cost, logistics and political risk.