Inbound trips by non-US residents in the US - Data and Analysis (2000-2032)

Inbound trips to the United States by non-US residents are projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2026, a partial recovery from 2025 when negative sentiment toward the country and a Canadian travel boycott produced the steepest drop in two decades outside the pandemic (NTTO, CNN). The FIFA World Cup and celebrations for the nation's 250th anniversary anchor the rebound, giving airlines and destinations reason to add capacity and marketing across host cities. The turnaround is narrower than it appears. Almost three-quarters of incremental volume comes from Mexico and Canada while overseas arrivals fell through the first half of the year, with major European and Asian markets tracking well below forecast. Expensive tickets, visa hurdles and disappointing hotel bookings blunted the tournament's boost, and stricter immigration enforcement continues to temper inflows.Over the five-year period ending in 2026, inbound trips grew at a 25.9% compound annual rate, albeit from an extremely low base in 2021. Inbound trips were defined by extreme volatility across the period. The return of global travel in 2021 was gradual and uneven as lingering restrictions and weak confidence held arrival volumes far below pre-pandemic benchmarks. Volumes more than doubled in 2022 as entry rules loosened and pent-up demand was released, marking the fastest growth of the period. Capacity was capped by consular backlogs, with first-time visitor visa applicants in several top markets facing average interview waits beyond a year. Growth stayed rapid through 2023 as China lifted its ban on outbound group tours to the United States. Faster visa processing, better affordability and restored airline networks lifted arrivals again in 2024, though the recovery remained incomplete and volumes stayed below the 2019 peak.The period's defining deviation came in 2025, when arrivals fell even as global travel set records. Tariffs and annexation rhetoric triggered a sustained Canadian boycott that cut cross-border trips sharply, and Canada alone accounted for most of the national decline. Policy layered on further friction. An entry suspension covering nineteen countries took effect in mid-2025 and was expanded at the start of 2026, authorization fees for visa waiver travelers nearly doubled, a new visa integrity charge raised the cost of a tourist visa substantially, online presence screening was extended to more applicant categories and federal destination marketing funding was cut by four-fifths. A weaker dollar improved value for foreign visitors but could not offset reputational damage.