Divorce rate in the US - Data and Analysis (1987-2032)

The US divorce rate is estimated at 2.0 divorces per 1,000 people in 2026, a 6.2% decrease from the previous year. Marital regret and financial strain remain contributing factors, but the more consequential trend involves gray divorce, in which older couples with accumulated wealth separate after decades of marriage because their resources can cover the cost of splitting a household. Those cases drove much of the rise in the divorce rate over the past decade. As the baby boomer generation ages, that source of divorces is thinning. Andrew Cherlin, professor emeritus of sociology and public policy at Johns Hopkins University, told Newsweek that these instances will fade as the cohort does, pulling the rate down. Structural shifts in marriage reinforce the decline. Fewer Americans marry at all, and those who do tend to be wealthier and more educated, groups that divorce less often, which keeps divorce rates flat even as the population grows. From 2021 to 2025, the divorce rate was influenced by pandemic-related disruptions and broader demographic changes. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic led to a 14.8% drop in the divorce rate, as health and economic uncertainties caused many to postpone marriage and divorce. The rate rebounded by 8.7% in 2021 as the economy recovered and social activity increased. Subsequent years saw volatility: a 4.0% decline in 2022, a 4.0% rebound in 2023 and a 1.7% increase in 2024.Structural factors, like the rise in cohabitation over marriage, have constrained marriage and divorce rates. Recent data shows that 28.0% of adults aged 25 to 54 who have never been married now live with a partner, reflecting a broader acceptance of cohabitation. Increased economic security and educational attainment among women, coupled with delayed marriage, have reduced exposure to early divorces. Macroeconomic trends outside sharp recessionary effects had an unclear but generally stabilizing impact on the divorce rate, with income disruptions dampening expensive divorce proceedings but heightened household stress still influencing marital discord. Because of said stresses, mixed with growing percentage of dual-income households allowing for couples to afford these decisions, these factors eased divorces to happen. From 2021 to 2026, these trends fostered a consistent growth in the divorce rate, rising at CAGR of 4.4% over the period.