Total recorded crime

Over the decade through 2013-14 crime in the United Kingdom was in a state of trended decline - the total number of reported crimes was down 32.7% in 2013-14 (4,401,606), compared to 2002-03 (6,535,737), having fallen year-on-year for nine of the 11 years through 2013-14. A number of theories and anecdotal suppositions attempted to explain the persistent fall in recorded crimes, including: rising police numbers, which translate into a greater police presence amongst the general public; improved policing methods; advances in security technologies (e.g., intelligent closed-circuit television cameras); higher levels of incarceration; and the evolution of crime. The latter may refer to the rise of cybercrime which, until recently, was not reported to the authorities in earnest relative to more "traditional" crimes (e.g., violence and theft).

Since at least 2002-03 inclusive, when directly comparable records between UK nations began, England and Wales have together accounted for over 90% of total recorded crime in the United Kingdom annually - in 2020-21 (i.e., the latest financial year for which crime statistics are wholly available for all UK geographies), England and Wales accounted for 94.1% of total recorded crime in the United Kingdom, with Scotland (4.3%) and Northern Ireland (1.7%) making up the balance. Typically, UK recorded crimes are broadly categorised as "victim-based crime" (e.g., violence against the person, sexual offences, theft offences, robbery, criminal damage and arson) and "other crimes against society" (e.g., drug offences, possession of weapons, public order offences, and miscellaneous crimes against society). Theft offences and crimes related to violence against the person are, by a significant margin, the most reported crimes in the United Kingdom. Indicative of this, "violence against the person offences" accounted for 32.6% of total recorded crime in England and Wales in the year through March 2021, followed by "theft offences" (23.9%), "fraud and computer misuse offences" (15.4%),"public order offences" (8.9%), "criminal damage and arson" (8.7%), "drug offences" (3.8%), "sexual offences" (2.7%), "robbery" (1.1%), and "possession of weapons offences" (0.8%) - miscellaneous and or other crimes accounted to the residual (2%).

Following the decade of sustained decline, the total number of reported crimes in the United Kingdom is forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 1.9% over the five-year period through 2022-23, to reach 6,451,558 reported crimes - the volume of UK reported crimes had already recorded six consecutive years of growth through 2019-20. To a certain extent, the total number of reported crimes has been artificially inflated by alterations to, and developments in, recording practices - that is, modern policing and crime reporting methods have widened the scope of what are considered to be a crime, painting somewhat of a mixed picture when attempting to analyse the actual level of crime in a given financial year. Notwithstanding new-age reporting methods, however, reported crime rose and accelerated since 2014-15 through 2019-20, particularly in England and Wales where reported crime numbers rose by double-digit percentages in 2016-17 (10.2%) and 2017-18 (11.1%) respectively due to marked increases in violent crime, theft and sexual offences.

Despite the Home Office largely attributing the marked increase in reported crime number to "ongoing work by police forces...to improve crime recording practices", it also advocates that "this makes interpreting trends in police recorded violence difficult". A conclusive answer to why crime, both violent and non-violent, has risen is impossible to determine and a multifaceted issue. Nevertheless, trends have emerged in recent years which appear to correlate with an upturn in UK crime numbers. For instance, according to the Home Office, the annual average total police workforce in England and Wales in 2018-19 (202,023) was 3.5% lower in headcount compared 2013-14 (209,262), and 16.9% down on the headcount in 2008-09 (243,153). The assumption is that cuts in police office numbers - these cuts were then justified on the basis that then continual falls in crime since the new millennium meant that it was not necessary to maintain such a large police force - have had an impact on the capacity of the policy to respond to crime. However, the presumption that there is no direct link between the number of officers and the level of crime is argued. Meanwhile, some lobbyists correlate factors such as a lenient justice system and a lack of policy measures (i.e., those with an explicit objective to reduce crime) with an increase in crime, stating that the current policing system fails to deter both misdemeanour and serious offences.

Before presumably moving back towards a more "normal" level in 2021-22, with forecast year-on-year growth of 10.5%, the total number of reported crimes in the United Kingdom declined by 10.3% in 2020-21, revering the trended increase since 2014-15 inclusive. This is largely assumed to have been the result of a marked drop in the rate of crime, notwithstanding a noted 8% increase in fraud offences and computer misuse, during the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, particularly during the intermittent national lockdown periods. The Home Office proclaims, in respect to a reduction in total crime, "underlying this reduction were significant falls in theft offences, particularly domestic burglary and other theft of personal property; this reflects the increase in time people spent at home during the lockdown period, a reduction in opportunities for theft in public places and the closure of the night-time economy". As lockdown measures relaxed on an ad hoc basis, criminality is expected to edge back toward a pre-pandemic "regular" level, thus preventing the volume of reported incidents from any exponential decline. A as result the number of recorded crimes is expected to grow again in the current year, albeit at the more muted rate of 1.1%