Total labour force in the UK - Data and Analysis (2000-2033)

Over the five-year period through 2026-27, the UK labour force is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.4%, totalling circa 36,597.7 thousand people on average in the final year of the period, and, as a general rule of thumb, followed the same trajectory as underlying UK population growth under "normal" market conditions. However, as per the ONS' Labour market overview, generic reasons for being economically inactive include those who: are waiting for the results of a job application; have not yet started looking for work; do not need or want employment; have given an uncategorised reason for being economically inactive; or have not given a reason for being economically inactive. As per ONS data, the average number of economically active people in 2025-26 decreased by 0.2%.The past five-year period has been characterised by a sustained expansion of the UK labour force, driven chiefly by migration and, more recently, by a gradual rebound in participation among working-age people. Following a period of record net migration, which peaked at 944,000 in 2022-23, a large inflow of overseas workers and students lifted the number of economically active people, even as inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 and the Bank of England raised the official bank rate to a peak of 5.25%. Reweighting of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) in December 2024 also raised the estimated level of the labour force, although the underlying direction of growth was upward in either case. Over the same period, a decline in economic inactivity among those of working age, as fewer people left the labour market for health and caring reasons, supported participation and added to the strength of the population-driven expansion.More recently, the labour force has continued to grow despite a softening labour market. In the three months to August 2026, the ONS estimated the total labour force (those in employment plus the unemployed, aged 16 and over) at around 36.3 million people, up by approximately 330,000, or 0.9%, on the year. This reflects a 356,000-person increase in employment, which more than offset a modest fall in unemployment of 26,000. The UK employment rate stood at 75.3% for those aged 16 to 64, while the economic inactivity rate fell to 20.9%, with 22,000 fewer people economically inactive than a year earlier. Growth in the labour force has been uneven, however. Unemployment peaked at 5.2% in late 2025, the highest rate in several years, before easing to 4.7% in the three months to August 2026, and HMRC payrolled employee numbers have continued to fall, down 145,000 (0.5%) on the year in the early estimate for August 2026, a divergence that partly reflects the volatility of the LFS. At the same time, falling net migration has begun to restrain the pace of expansion. Net migration fell to 171,000 in the year ending December 2025, down from a revised 331,000 in the year ending December 2024, as fewer non-EU workers arrived for work-related reasons and the expiry of graduate visas increased outflows.Over the course of 2026-27, the total labour force is forecast to expand by a further 1.5%, to reach approximately 36.6 million people, although the rate of growth is expected to slow relative to the preceding year. Participation is set to be supported by the rise in the state pension age from 66 to 67 between 2026 and 2028, which is likely to keep older workers in the labour force for longer, and by a continued gradual decline in economic inactivity. However, these tailwinds are expected to be partially offset by a range of headwinds. Net migration is forecast to fall further as tighter immigration rules continue to take effect, and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has lowered its migration outlook, reducing its projection for the adult population by roughly 200,000 by 2030. Weak hiring demand also remains a drag, as the OBR has noted that new entrants to the labour force are struggling to find work. In addition, CPI inflation rose to 3.5% in September 2026, driven by higher motor fuel prices amid the Middle East energy shock, and the Bank of England expects it to reach roughly 3.75% in the final quarter of 2026 and slightly above 4% in early 2027. With Bank Rate held at 3.75% in September 2026, and real wage growth having narrowed to around 0.5% earlier in 2026, subdued consumer and business confidence is likely to limit recruitment activity. Hence, labour force growth is expected to continue, but at a more moderate pace.