Population aged 10 years and under in the UK - Data and Analysis (2000-2033)

The number of children aged 10 years and under is expected to decline at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2026-27 to 8 million people. Due to changing social circumstances, like increased participation in education and rising housing and childcare costs, many have decided to delay starting a family and having children, with the average age of parents continuing to creep upwards. Births in the UK have been falling since 2012-13. A delayed knock-on effect has meant that the number of children aged 10 and below has been falling since 2019-20. The rate of decline eased temporarily in the early part of the period as a post-pandemic rebound in births in 2021-22 fed through into the cohort. However, this proved short-lived: there were 585,396 live births in England and Wales in 2025, a 1.6% decrease from 594,677 in 2024, and the total fertility rate fell to 1.39 children per woman in 2025, the lowest on record for a fourth consecutive year. Consequently, the decline in the cohort has accelerated, with the number of children in this age bracket expected to fall by 1.9% in 2026-27 as the relatively large cohorts born in the mid-2010s age out and are replaced by much smaller ones. While this category is also affected by deaths and migration, these are expected to have a very minimal impact on the cohort compared to birth rates.