Total mass of imports by sea in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1989-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of imports by sea to rise 3.9% in 2026-27, to 27.2 million metric tonnes. This is part of a wider recovery in import volumes over the three years through to 2026-27, which included a 10.9% surge in 2025-26. Buoyed by falling interest rates, consumer spending and business activity have rebounded during this period. Similarly, a recovery in agricultural capacity has spurred demand for imported fuel and fertiliser. However, elevated fuel costs and an historically weak New Zealand dollar have lifted the cost of imported goods, limiting growth. A slow recovery in construction and infrastructure has similarly curbed volumes of imported cement, steel and other bulk cargo.Over the past two decades, globalisation has put downwards pressure on the cost of imports. This was also driven by low global inflation, the removal of trade barriers and the integration of developing economies into a global market system. However, recent geopolitical tension and the corresponding rise in opposition to globalisation in developed nations, coupled with a pandemic-induced push towards economic self-reliance, signalled an increase in trade barriers. This situation has resulted in more significant restrictions on the flow of goods, affecting international trade globally.The New Zealand dollar has depreciated over the past five years, driving up the costs of many imported goods. In particular, this trend has placed upwards pressure on the price of many consumer goods, such as electrical products, limiting consumer demand. However, New Zealand's limited manufacturing base means many consumers and industry sectors rely on imports to meet demand, limiting the effect of a weak dollar on import volumes.Crude petroleum oil also accounts for a significant proportion of New Zealand's total imports by mass. After Marsden Point ceased operations in March 2022, New Zealand lacks any domestic refining capacity and is wholly reliant on imported refined petroleoum prodducts. New Zealand primarily imports these products from countries like Singapore, South Korea and Japan. These factors help stabilise the total mass of imports by sea even amid chaos in energy markets. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the total mass of imports by sea to climb at a compound annual rate of 1.7% over the five years through 2025-26.