Road freight service price in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1995-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the road freight service price to surge 17.2% in 2026-27, to 182.4 index points. The sharp rise reflects soaring oil prices amid continued supply disruptions in the Middle East. Many road freight operators, particularly major players like Mainfreight, have passed on higher fuel costs through built-in indexation clauses within their broker-carrier agreements that update prices to reflect changing fuel costs. Road freight companies can do this because demand for road freight services is highly inelastic, owing to minimal competition from other modes of transportation, with data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that around 93% of New Zealand's domestic freight tonnage is carried by road. Road freight benefits from superior freight economics and flexibility relative to other modes, particularly as freight movements in New Zealand tend to be short, often within the same region. That said, high transportation costs and an inflationary environment are expected to curb household spending and prompt businesses to rationalise production lines during the year. Stats NZ has already recorded a 1.7% dip in revenue for the transport, postal, and warehousing sector during the first quarter of 2026-27. To maintain demand, road freight companies will likely opt to absorb some of the higher fuel costs through the remainder of 2026-27, subduing price growth.New Zealand's reliance on road freight enabled operators to hike prices considerably during the inflationary peaks of 2021-22 and 2022-23, when the service price index rose by 8.9% and 14.9% respectively. Those increases reflected sharp rises in retail diesel prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.While less important, vehicle and labour costs also influence the road freight service price. The motor vehicle index has fluctuated but has inched upwards over the past five years, exerting upwards pressure on road freight operators' costs and prices. Growing labour costs owing to persistent driver shortages are also adding to road freight companies' costs. A 2025 workforce report by Transporting New Zealand revealed that over 10% of drivers are aged 65 or older, while nearly half of operators expect up to a quarter of their drivers to leave within five years. With almost a quarter of drivers overseas-born, recruitment and retention challenges are adding sustained wage pressures. Operators are also grappling with rising maintenance costs and deteriorating road infrastructure, which has weighed on productivity and amplified operating expenses. Alongside volatile diesel prices, these conditions have also placed upwards pressure on prices in recent years. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the road freight service price index to rise at an annualised rate of 7% over the five years through to 2026-27.