Retail petrol prices in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1975-2034)

IBISWorld estimates the average retail price of petrol will rise 7.8% during 2026-27, to 284.8 cents per litre. The rise reflects a sustained global oil shock. Conflict between Israel, the United States and Iran that erupted in late February 2026 choked tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway carrying close to a fifth of the world's oil. The US Energy Information Administration reports Brent crude rose from about $61 USD a barrel at the start of 2026 to above $100 USD by 12 March, reaching $118 USD by quarter's end. Prices eased after the June 2026 memorandum of understanding to reopen the strait and the agency's July outlook expects Brent to be near $65 USD per barrel in 2027 as OPEC+ raises output. That easing is far from assured, particularly as the June/July memorandum failed amid further conflict, but new peace talks began in August. The strait had not fully reopened by August 2026 and a drawn-out conflict could keep crude elevated. The firmer New Zealand dollar is preventing prices from being higher than they may otherwise be, since it lowers the local-currency cost of imported fuel regardless of where crude settles. The currency has been supported by its shift towards a monetary tightening, with the Official Cash Rate lifted to 2.50% in July 2026 and by broad US dollar weakness.Two enduring forces set the medium-term direction of New Zealand petrol prices and include the global crude price and the exchange rate. Because crude trades in US dollars, the New Zealand dollar's value against it is a constant influence. When the currency weakens, each dollar buys less crude and retail petrol prices rise. A stronger currency does the reverse. New Zealand also imports all of its refined fuel, having had no domestic refining since the Marsden Point refinery became an import-only terminal in 2022. That makes the country a price-taker, fully exposed to global crude and to the freight and insurance costs its distance from major refineries adds. These forces drove much of the price movement over the past five years.The five years through 2026-27 began with prices already elevated, after the Russia-Ukraine war drove global supply deficits and lifted New Zealand retail petrol prices in 2021-22. Prices climbed to about 274.4 cents a litre in 2023-24, then eased over the next two years as global production recovered and the New Zealand dollar began to firm. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis reversed that decline and pushed prices to a fresh high, more than offsetting the earlier softening. Overall, IBISWorld estimates the average retail price of petrol will rise at a compound annual rate of 3.3% over the five years through 2026-27.