Population aged between 15 and 45 in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1991-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged between 15 and 45 to reach 2,280,456 people in 2026-27, representing a rise of 0.7% on the previous year. Growth in this age demographic is expected to be supported by positive net migration levels throughout the year. Many migrants are working-age individuals, so positive net migration tends to translate into growth in the number of 15- to 25-year-olds. After trending downwards over the past few decades, this age group has risen as a share of the overall population over the past five years, accounting for an estimated 42.4% in 2026-27.Prior to the pandemic, New Zealand was benefitting from relatively strong real GDP growth. This strong economic performance encouraged individuals from overseas to migrate to the country in search of employment opportunities. However, net migration, which also typically drives growth in the size this age group, was subdued because of the New Zealand Government's (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) heavy border restrictions in response to the pandemic. Nevertheless, border restrictions eased throughout 2022, prompting a surge in net migration over the two years through 2023-24. This two-year period coincided with a temporary relaxation of visa restrictions, resulting in much higher-than-normal migrant inflows. However, in April 2024, stricter requirements were introduced to the Accredited Employer Work Visa scheme, making it more difficult for migrants to enter New Zealand. Resultant weaker migration levels since 2024-25 have led to a corresponding slowing of growth in the population aged between 15 and 45. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged between 15 and 45 to grow at a compound annual rate of 1.7% over the five years through 2026-27.