Population aged 14 and younger in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1991-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to decline by 0.5% during 2026-27, to total 959,300 people. This decline is expected to be driven by a low birth rate relative to the number of people turning 15 and exiting the demographic. While net migration will be positive throughout the year, most migrants are older than 14 years old, limiting the impact on the demographic's populationHistorically, the number of people aged 14 and under has grown, mirroring the trend in the overall population of New Zealand. However, growth in this specific demographic has trailed underlying population growth over the long run, as the share of people aged 14 and under has dropped from 23.1% in 1990-91 to a forecasted 17.8% in 2026-27. Over the past five years in particular, the demographic's population has trended downwards. A large reason for this has been the decline in the number of births in New Zealand over the past 15 years. During the late 2000s and early 2010s, the number of births in New Zealand consistently eclipsed 60,000. However, the number of births in New Zealand has only reached this mark once in the past decade. Average birth numbers over the three years through 2011-12 were above 62,000 while those over the three years through 2026-27 are expected to be less than 59,000. As a result, the number of people exiting the age group in the past 3 years has exceeded the replacement number of births, causing an unprecedented decline in the demographic's size. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the New Zealand population aged 14 and younger to fall at a compound annual rate of 0.1% over the five years through 2026-27.