Number of school students in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1996-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the number of school students to dip by 0.3% in 2026-27 to reach 850,979 students. This projected decline represents the two consecutive annual contractions since the 2024-25 peak. The recent peak was largely driven by a larger birth cohort that peaked between 2008 and 2010. As these cohorts move out of the schooling system, the number of school students has dipped. In the short term, school-age net migration is also expected to dip, contributing to the decline in the number of students in New Zealand.Formal education remains compulsory for those aged 6 to 16, encouraging high overall enrolment. Outside this age bracket, attending school becomes optional but remains free for those aged 5 to 19. These final years of secondary education focus on obtaining the National Certificate of Educational Achievement (NCEA), available at three levels. However, the Government has confirmed NCEA will be replaced from 2028 by new subject-based qualifications. Public funding for primary and secondary education is forecast to have grown over the past five years, with Budget 2026 adding $160 million to school operational grants and a further $470 million in capital investment for new school sites and classrooms. These initiatives, alongside those in previous budgets, support capacity in districts with high student roll growth and aid secondary school retention, cushioning the decline caused by demographic changes over recent years. An expected increase in secondary school retention rate over the past five years and steady growth in Maori students attending school have also supported student numbers. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of school students to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2026-27.