Number of property transfers

IBISWorld forecasts that the number of property transfers will increase by 5.3% in 2025-26 to 177,021 transfers. According to data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), quarterly property transfer numbers have been up against 2024-25 over the first three quarters of the financial year. This strong performance was led by the June 2025 quarter, when property transfers rose 12.3% year over year. Strong performance in the property market has been supported by continued cuts to the Official Cash Rate (OCR), which have improved mortgage affordability. However, strong demand in the property market has caused the residential housing price index to spike, limiting the overall growth rate in property transfers.

Over the past five years, New Zealand's property market has experienced significant fluctuations driven by changes in monetary policy and economic factors. In 2020-21, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) reduced the OCR to an unprecedented low of 0.25%. This action made borrowing more affordable and mortgages more accessible, sparking strong housing demand. Property transfers increased notably as first-time buyers and investors entered the market, attracted by low interest rates and the prospect of capital gains. The market's momentum resulted in a high number of building consents issued during this period, indicating confidence in the residential construction sector.

Between 2021-22 and 2023-24, the annual number of property transfers declined consistently. Housing supply constraints caused residential housing prices to skyrocket, leading to sharp declines in mortgage affordability. During 2022-23 and 2023-24, the number of property transfers was further hampered by contractionary monetary policy, as the RBNZ sought to control inflation through a series of OCR hikes. Between May 2023 and July 2024, the OCR sat at 5.5%, with the related high borrowing costs and reduced mortgage affordability causing a slowdown in property market activity. Potential buyers faced higher interest expenses and sellers encountered decreased demand, forcing them to reconsider decisions to place properties on the market. Additionally, escalating construction costs placed further strain on the market, discouraging new developments and contributing to a decline in property transactions.

Property transfer activity rebounded in 2024-25, as declines in the OCR improved demand-side conditions in the property market. Improvements in mortgage affordability combined with contained growth in house prices resulted in a larger number of property transfers. In July 2024, the RBNZ also amended its debt-to-income rules, exempting construction loans from DTI restrictions. These exemptions supported increases to the housing supply, pushing up property transfers by allowing existing homeowners to upsize or downsize with greater ease, resulting in a chain effect on the property market. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of property transfers to decrease at a compound annual rate of 2.8% over the five years through 2025-26.