Number of deaths

IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in New Zealand to drop by 0.4% in 2025-26, to a total of 37,507 deaths. New Zealand's population growth is expected to be moderate in 2025-26 at 1.5%, placing some upwards pressure on the number of deaths. However, the death rate as a percentage of the population has been elevated above the historical mean between 2022-23 and 2024-25, with a downward reversion towards the average likely to offset the impacts of a growing population base.

The primary cause of death in New Zealand is noncommunicable diseases. The New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) published the Government Policy Statement on Health 2024-27 on June 2024. According to this statement, five noncommunicable diseases, including cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, diabetes and poor mental health, contribute the most significantly to deaths in New Zealand. Fatalities from communicable illnesses, like the winter flu, also impact the number of deaths. After being relatively well contained over the two years through the end of 2021-22, due to the pandemic and social distancing practices, the flu returned in full force from 2022-23, swamping hospitals with high patient numbers. Most flu strains typically cause more illness in elderly populations, with this trend driving up death numbers among the older age cohort in 2022-23. As a result, the death rate as a share of the population reached 0.76% in 2022-23. This figure has trended down to 0.71% over the two years through 2024-25, but remains above the historical average of 0.69% since 2014-15.

The total number of deaths in New Zealand is highly correlated with the size of the overall population. Consequently, long term growth in New Zealand's population has ensured the number of deaths recorded annually generally trends upwards. The number of deaths is usually highest during the winter months, with colder weather driving an increase in the number of deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses. Typically, over 70% of deaths registered in New Zealand annually are of people who were aged over 70 at the time of their death. Growth in the median age of the population over the past five years has driven an increase in the number of people in this demographic and contributed to growth in the number of deaths over the period. However, rising health consciousness and improvements in medical technology have partially offset growth in the number of deaths recorded in New Zealand over the past decade. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of deaths in New Zealand to rise a compound annual rate of 2.7% over the five years through 2025-26.