Number of births in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1981-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to rise by 0.1% in 2026-27 to 57,068. The birth rate is expected to grow slightly in 2026-27, offsetting some of the decline from 2025-26. Expansions in household income is expected to persuade more parents to have children. While the number of births is expected to increase slightly in 2026-27, the fertility rate is set to remain near historic lows, between 1.5 and 1.6 births per woman, well below the required population growth replacement rate of 2.1.According to Statistics New Zealand, the total fertility rate declined to its lowest on record in 2025-26, to 1.53 births per woman, well down from the 2.19 births per woman reached in 2007-08. It's clear that many couples are opting to start their families later in life and having fewer children compared to historical averages, pushing down the total fertility rate. Between 2015-26 and 2025-26, children born to mothers aged 20-29 have decreased by 23.8%, while children born to mothers aged 30-39 have increased by 14.0%.Cultural changes have contributed to the decline in the number of births over the past decade. More women are choosing to enter and remain in the workforce and seek education, which tends to reduce the number of children these individuals have. This trend has been magnified over the past five years, as cost-of-living pressures have meant women have increasingly opted to remain in the workforce to avoid the added financial burden of raising a child.In addition, social education surrounding contraception has become more wide reaching, resulting in more women accessing and using contraceptive methods. This is demonstrated in the sharp decline in fertility rate for women under 30. In particular, births by teenagers have become less common, dropping by 45.0% over the decade through 2025-26, according to Statistics New Zealand. In addition, the steady decline of infant mortality rates has resulted in couples having fewer babies, contributing to the declining total fertility rate.Over the past five years, the number of births in New Zealand has been relatively volatile. Initially, the pandemic drove a baby boom in 2021-22, when births jumped by 5.3% to 60,144, marking the highest figure since 2015-16. However, the boom was short-lived, as over the two years through 2023-24 births dropped to their lowest since 2003-04, primarily due to economic uncertainty and cost-of-living pressures. The number of births temporarily rebounded by 4.0% in 2024-25, but these gains were largely offset by the decline in births in 2025-26. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of births to decrease at a compound annual rate of 1.0% over the five years through 2026-27.