Levels of obesity in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2003-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the level of obesity in New Zealanders to rise by 0.3 percentage points in 2026-27, to 66.5% of the population. Falling fruit and vegetable consumption is expected to drive up obesity over the year, as high food prices lead households to swap fresh produce for less expensive processed alternatives. Weak growth in real household disposable income will add to this pressure. Even so, lower per capita alcohol consumption and a slight rise in participation in sport and active recreation will limit the hike.Obesity levels have been broadly flat over the past five years. The period began just after a pandemic-era peak, when lockdowns disrupted exercise routines and changed eating habits. Obesity eased over the following two years as restrictions lifted and people returned to organised sport and recreation. Participation in sport and active recreation surged in 2023-24, reaching its highest level in two decades, before easing slightly. At the same time, per capita alcohol consumption has fallen sharply, as cost-of-living pressures and changing attitudes, particularly among younger adults, reduced drinking. Apparent fruit and vegetable consumption has also risen over the past few years, supported by programs like the Health Star Rating food labelling system, which encourages healthier choices. Yet, cost-of-living pressures have offset much of this progress. Real household disposable income fell over the two years through 2022-23 and has grown only slowly since. Tighter budgets have pushed many households towards cheaper, calorie-dense foods, while rising costs for gym memberships, sports fees and fresh produce have made healthy lifestyles harder to maintain. This contributed to a rebound in obesity between 2022-23 and 2024-25.While the overall share of overweight and obese adults has stalled, the severity of the problem is growing. About one in three adults is now classified as obese, rather than overweight, with the share climbing back to 34.2% in 2024-25 after easing following the pandemic. This suggests that people who are already overweight are increasingly moving into the obese category. Obesity also remains much more common among Maori and Pacific peoples and in more deprived areas, reflecting long-standing inequities in income and access to healthy food. New Zealand's obesity rate remains among the highest in the OECD, and high BMI is now a leading risk factor for poor health, adding to the strain on the healthcare system. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts that the level of obesity will fall at an average annual rate of 0.06 percentage points over the five years through 2026-27.