Level of criminal activity in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1991-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts that the number of crimes reported in New Zealand will rise by 2.1% in 2026-27, reaching 475,911. This lift follows a dip in 2025-26 and reflects the ongoing impact of weak economic conditions and persistent cost-of-living pressures, both of which have kept crime rates elevated. Although crime declined during the peak of the pandemic, current figures remain above pre-pandemic levels. A soft labour market has added to the strain on household budgets. According to Statistics New Zealand, the unemployment rate reached 5.6% in the June 2026 quarter, its highest level since 2015. With the cost of essentials expected to stay high through 2026-27, pressure on household finances is likely to keep reported crime elevated.Theft is one of the most commonly reported crimes in New Zealand and has been a major driver of the rise in reported crime over the past five years. The pandemic led to a decline in the number of crimes, including robbery and theft, as people staying at home limited opportunities for burglaries and robberies. Some forms of crime, like fraud, continued to increase as these were not affected by lockdowns and restrictions. In 2022-23, as lockdowns and restrictions ended, the number of reported crimes surged, with theft and robbery among the fastest-growing categories and theft convictions rose by roughly 30%. Weakening economic conditions contributed to growth in these crimes. This pressure is visible in the courts, where theft charges finalised climbed to 37,559 in 2025, up by more than 70% from 21,943 in 2021 and the highest annual total in at least 25 years.Population growth remains a major driver of absolute crime volumes, with more residents, particularly in younger, urban and migrant groups, resulting in more recorded offences. However, per capita crime in New Zealand has trended downwards over the long term. This has been aided by an ageing population and wider participation in tertiary education, both of which reduce prevalence among high-risk cohorts. Even so, IBISWorld forecasts that the total number of crimes reported has risen at a compound annual rate of 3.5% over the five years through 2026-27. This increase reflects not only population gains but also changes in reporting methods, police counting rules and the rapid emergence of new crime types like digital fraud. Economic pressures, including cost-of-living strain and rising household financial stress, have also been linked with increases in volume offences like shoplifting and retail theft.