Dwelling consents issued in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1966-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the number of dwelling consents issued to jump by 13.1% in 2026-27, to a total of 42,756 units. Over the four months through July 2026, the number of dwelling consents exceeded 14,500, according to data from StatsNZ. Most notably, the June 2026 quarter saw the highest number of dwelling consents since December 2022, indicating the metric's ongoing recovery. Despite the strong start to the year, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to engage in contractionary monetary policy from July 2026 is likely to cause a slight slow down in dwelling consents over the second half of the year.The initial lockdown period significantly boosted the New Zealand household savings rate throughout 2020 and 2021, enabling more New Zealanders to accumulate deposits for housing. This trend drove a significant increase in the demand for new dwellings in 2021-22, with new dwelling consents jumping by 24.2% compared to 2020-21. Residential housing prices in Auckland and Wellington skyrocketed over the period, sparking robust construction activity and leading to record numbers of dwelling consents issued. Additionally, low interest rates heightened investor appetite for residential real estate, as financing became relatively inexpensive, bolstering construction activity and the issuance of dwelling consents.In 2022-23, the number of dwelling consents issued dropped compared to the peak of 2021-22 but remained the second most active year of all time for New Zealand's residential construction sector. The RBNZ also engaged with contractionary monetary policy to combat post-pandemic inflation, which placed downward pressure on investment in new dwelling construction throughout the year. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remained elevated throughout 2023-24, resulting in a sharp pullback in new dwelling constructions, as the mortgage affordability index reached an all-time low. Despite a series of cuts to the OCR in the back half of 2024-25, the number of dwelling consents issued continued to decline, with the annual figure dipping to just over 34,000 (over 33.0% down on peak figures in 2021-22).While dwelling consents issued have fallen between 2022-23 and 2024-25, government policies surrounding the housing supply shortfall in New Zealand have limited further declines. Multiple initiatives like the Residential Development Underwrite program developed by the New Zealand Government (Te Kawanatanga o Aotearoa) have sought to address the housing shortage, placing some upward pressure on dwelling consents issued.In 2025-26, the number of dwelling consents spiked by 11.0%. This rebound in dwelling consents issued was driven by expansionary monetary policy, with the RBNZ slashing the OCR by 150 basis points over a series of cuts during the financial year. These cuts placed upward pressure on mortgage affordability for New Zealanders as average residential housing loan rates have declined, allowing increased private investment in new housing. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of dwelling consents issued to fall at a compound annual rate of 3.5% over the five years through 2026-27.