Domestic price of sheep meat in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2007-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of sheep meat to retreat 9.7% during 2026-27 to 757.91 c/kgCW, pulling back from the record set the previous year. Determined principally by competition among processors for available slaughter stock, it represents what farmers receive at the farmgate. With New Zealand's flock contracting as a result of land conversion to forestry and competition from beef cattle, processors have had to bid aggressively to keep plants operating near capacity, thereby passing back an unusually high share of export value to farmers. This procurement pressure drove prices up 14.4% in 2025-26 to 839.08 c/kgCW, following a 15.9% recovery the year prior from the 2023-24 trough of 633.95 c/kgCW.New Zealand exports the overwhelming majority of its sheep meat production, meaning domestic farmgate returns track international values closely, though not perfectly. The margin between them reflects processing costs, freight and the intensity of competition for stock. The New Zealand Government estimates the average export price of lamb will retreat 10.1% over the 12 months through June 2027, with mutton easing 2.7%, in turn influencing the domestic price of the same product towards moderation.Supply remains the dominant influence on the domestic price of sheep meat, of which production is the strongest determinant of farmgate returns, with contracting supply exerting significant upwards pressure. This structural tightening has cushioned the 2026-27 correction and farmgate prices haven't returned to the lows of the difficult 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons. Through the conversion of marginal sheep country to beef production, record cattle returns have acted as a secondary price influence, further constraining the pool of stock available for slaughter.Accounting for around 84% of total sheep slaughter in 2026-27, lamb dominates the composition of the national kill. This rate compares with around 85% in 2023-24, confirming the stability of lamb's outsized influence on the blended domestic price. Over the 20 years through 2025 (latest available data), total sheep numbers fell by 41.7%, with lamb numbers specifically falling 37.0%, while export volumes have proven more resilient, a divergence explained by rising carcase weights. Overall, the domestic price of sheep meat is forecast to tick upwards at an annualised 0.6% over the five years through 2026-27.