Domestic price of coarse grains in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2006-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of coarse grains in New Zealand to inch upwards in 2026-27, by 1.4% to 101.4 index points. This modest gain caps a volatile run for the domestic index, following a sharp 5.4% fall in 2024-25 and suggests the market is now settling into a steadier pattern after several years of outsized swings. The near-flat movement reflects a balance between firmer global cereal benchmarks and offsetting local factors, including a modest recovery in New Zealand cereal plantings and a softer near-term outlook for dairy-sector feed demand following Fonterra's lowered 2026-27 payout forecast.Global cereal markets have provided the main upwards influence on domestic pricing. The FAO Cereal Price Index climbed to 116.3 points in August 2026, its highest level since May 2024, driven by renewed concerns over Black Sea export flows and adverse weather affecting crop prospects in several major producing regions. This marks a clear reversal from the softening trend that had dominated global grain markets through 2024 and into mid-2025. New Zealand's continued reliance on imported feed grain means that international price movements pass directly through to the domestic index, compounded by a historically weak New Zealand dollar.Local supply conditions have added modest firmness on top of these import-driven pressures, but have not been the primary driver. The Arable Industry Marketing Initiative (AIMI) survey to July 2026 showed the area sown to cereals for the season at around 84,400 hectares, down 4% on the prior year, extending a run of tighter domestic plantings that has limited the scope for local production to offset import cost pressures. On the demand side, the dairy sector remains the dominant consumer of feed grain and while demand has remained broadly resilient, Fonterra's forecast points to a more cautious spending environment among dairy farmers, which could cap further upwards momentum in feed grain consumption.