Cheese and butter consumption in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (2006-2033)

IBISWorld expects consumption of cheese and butter to drop by 2.3% in 2026, to 13.09 kilograms per capita. Cheese consumption accounts for the majority, and is expected to total 7.11 kilograms per capita in the current year. Declining cheese and butter consumption is expected to be driven by rising health consciousness and concerns over environmental issues. Both cheese and butter consumption are projected to fall per capita in 2026, as surging prices, driven by higher food inflation, discourage demand.The New Zealand public has become increasingly concerned about the source of their food, with a greater focus on natural and organic foods. This trend has boded well for cheese and butter, as despite their significant fat content, they're considered reliable sources of calcium. Organisations such as DairyNZ have promoted dairy products and sought to improve consumer confidence in dairy farming, which has supported consumer perceptions of consuming dairy goods, including cheese and butter, thereby boosting consumption. Consumers are increasingly favouring specialty cheeses like haloumi and gouda over everyday varieties such as cheddar. Due to the price premium of specialty cheese compared to everyday cheese, it is purchased in lower quantities. As a result, total consumption has only inched upwards, with faster population growth offsetting this increase and leading to a decline in per capita consumption of butter and cheese.Amid rampant inflation over much of the period, many New Zealanders have tightened their budgets, leading to reduced demand for cheese, as it's often discretionary. Reduced household budgets have accelerated this trend, leading to declining consumption in recent years. Rising trends of veganism and vegetarianism have also constrained cheese and butter consumption over the past five years in favour of alternative plant-based dairy products. This is due to increasing ethical and environmental concerns. Some environmentally conscious consumers are switching away from dairy products because dairy cattle are a direct source of greenhouse gas emissions. The latest data collected by the Government's National Inventory shows dairy cattle contributed 49.1% of the agricultural sector in New Zealand in 2024. Farmers have attempted to abate contributions through methane capture systems and other greenhouse gas mitigation techniques. Overall, IBISWorld expects cheese and butter consumption to remain relatively stable over the five years through 2026, falling marginally by an annualised 0.7%.