Beef and veal production in New Zealand - Data and Analysis (1983-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts beef and veal production to rise by 4.8% in 2026-27, to reach 687.6 kilotonnes. Output is set to rise following two consecutive down years through 2025-26, supported by robust beef prices and demand for New Zealand beef from the United States, where low herd numbers have lifted demand for imported meat. The elevated beef prices are also expected to encourage farmers to send more cattle to processors this year, following low bull and cow slaughter numbers that constrained output in prior years. In August 2026, the United States announced a 90-day removal of the out-of-quota tariff on up to 300,000 tonnes of imported ground beef, which will continue solidifying demand for New Zealand beef. China's safeguard quota on imported beef, set well above New Zealand's beef export volumes, is also unlikely to constrain trade. Tightening global supply and falling US production are anticipated to lift demand in export markets, further supporting a recovery in domestic production.Weather conditions influence beef and veal production. Years of low rainfall can cause pasture quality to suffer, raising feed costs for beef cattle farmers. In response to rising costs, farmers may reduce herd sizes, which can boost production in the short term but reduce it in future years.Overall, IBISWorld anticipates beef and veal production to fall at a compound annual rate of 1.2% over the five years through 2026-27, largely driven by lower slaughter rates across key categories like steers, bulls and cows over the two years through 2025-26, where total cattle slaughter fell by 3.5% and 9.1% respectively. Several factors contributed to this trend, including weaker profitability, which reduced the number of dairy-beef bulls entering the processing pipeline and tight livestock availability. Farmers also retained more calves to rebuild dairy herds or respond to shifts in demand thanks to high farmgate milk prices. Strong demand for New Zealand beef in export markets, particularly from China and the United States, has supported export and domestic beef prices over the past five years. However, environmental regulations introduced during this period, designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, discouraged farmers from rebuilding herds and, in some cases, encouraged them to leave the industry, diminishing overall output.