Total exports

Canadian exports in 2026 are expected to reach $743.7 billion, a 0.6% increase from 2025, as external headwinds—particularly tariff disputes with the United States—weigh on performance. With the US imposing additional duties on Canadian goods, Canada's heavy dependence on this single market has heightened risk and created a more constrained, uncertain export environment. In response, Canada is pursuing diversification. In early 2026, it reached new agreements with China, its second-largest trading partner, aimed at increasing exports to that market by at least 50.0% by 2030. As part of these efforts, China has agreed to lower or suspend tariffs on select products such as lobster, crab and canola seed, providing targeted opportunities to strengthen competitiveness despite tensions with the US. Beyond China, Canada is also seeking deeper trade ties with ASEAN and Mercosur, which could further reduce reliance on the US as new agreements are finalized and phased in.

Over 2021 to 2026, Canadian exports experienced a cycle of contraction and partial recovery driven by global disruptions and evolving market dynamics. As economies reopened and restrictions eased, exports rebounded, surpassing pre-pandemic levels to reach $752.0 billion in 2024. The rebound was led by renewed strength in energy exports, which benefited from higher prices and global demand as energy markets stabilized. Innovations in extraction technology and adaptability to shifting commodity values improved sector resilience. At the same time, heightened global competition from emerging markets like China—and the rise of non-tariff barriers—forced Canadian exporters to adapt by enhancing product quality, reducing costs, and diversifying markets. Exchange rate fluctuations remained significant, impacting pricing power and market share. Over the entire period, exporters invested in digitization, market research, and compliance with new environmental and trade standards to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving landscape. The resulting average annual export growth rate over five years to 2026 is 2.1%.

Strategic focus on market diversification and trade agreement adaptation was essential for export stability. Shifts toward a cleaner, value-added export mix and stronger engagement with emerging economies positioned Canadian exports to absorb external shocks more effectively. Continued emphasis on regulatory agility and economic policy flexibility reflects the persistent need to manage volatility in both global demand and supply conditions.