Total exports

Canadian exports in 2025 are anticipated to total $715.3 billion, reflecting a 3.0% decline from 2024 as external headwinds shape performance, notably tariff disputes with the United States and China. With the US levying additional duties on Canadian products, the longstanding trade reliance on the US poses heightened risks, leading to a constrained and uncertain export environment. Retaliatory tariffs from both sides, matched with ongoing trade diversification and the formalization of a new trade partnership with Europe, are pivotal. However, these efforts are unlikely to fully offset near-term losses from reduced US market access and persistent trade barriers with China. The export business environment is further complicated by shifting exchange rates, which influence both exporting costs and international competitiveness, particularly as the Canadian dollar remains volatile against major currencies.

Over 2020 to 2025, Canadian exports experienced a cycle of contraction and partial recovery driven by global disruptions and evolving market dynamics. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed exports down 9% to $649 billion in 2020, driven by sharply reduced global demand, disrupted supply chains, and logistical bottlenecks. As economies reopened and restrictions eased, exports rebounded, surpassing pre-pandemic levels to reach $737 billion in 2024. The rebound was led by renewed strength in energy exports, which benefited from higher prices and global demand as energy markets stabilized. Innovations in extraction technology and adaptability to shifting commodity values improved sector resilience. At the same time, heightened global competition from emerging markets like China—and the rise of non-tariff barriers—forced Canadian exporters to adapt by enhancing product quality, reducing costs, and diversifying markets. Exchange rate fluctuations remained significant, impacting pricing power and market share. Over the entire period, exporters invested in digitization, market research, and compliance with new environmental and trade standards to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving landscape. The resulting average annual export growth rate over five years to 2025 is 2.0%.

Strategic focus on market diversification and trade agreement adaptation was essential for export stability. Shifts toward a cleaner, value-added export mix and stronger engagement with emerging economies positioned Canadian exports to absorb external shocks more effectively. Continued emphasis on regulatory agility and economic policy flexibility reflects the persistent need to manage volatility in both global demand and supply conditions.