Price of red meat in Canada - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Red meat prices in Canada are set to increase 9.6% in 2026 to reach an index value of 240.4, reflecting a robust annualized increase of 5.7% over the previous five years. Tight cattle supplies remain the key driver. The Canadian herd grew year over year at the start of 2026 for the first time since 2018, but rebuilding is slow and the US herd is the smallest it has been in decades. Together, this keeps North American beef supplies scarce. Feeder cattle prices have eased from their late-2025 records but remain well above historical norms. Pork prices are also firm, as consumers trade down from expensive beef and disease outbreaks such as porcine epidemic diarrhea limit market-ready hog supplies. However, China's tariff on Canadian pork remains in place and was left out of the January trade deal with Beijing, limiting a key export outlet and capping hog price gains.Red meat prices have surged over the five years through 2026, driven mostly by a shrinking cattle supply. Severe drought across Western Canada in 2021 and the years that followed scorched pastures and pushed up hay and feed costs, forcing ranchers to sell off cows. As a result, the national herd fell to its lowest level since the 1980s, while drought in the United States drove a similar decline there. Since Canada and the United States trade beef freely, scarcity in both markets sent cattle prices sharply higher in 2024 and 2025, before they peaked at record levels late in 2025.Inflation caused a notable spike early in the period. In 2022, the war in Ukraine drove up grain, fuel and fertilizer prices, raising feed, transportation and processing costs across the supply chain. Labour shortages at packing plants added further cost pressure.Trade policy shaped performance in the latter half of the period. US tariffs introduced in 2025 largely exempted meat traded under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, preserving access to Canada's largest export market. In contrast, China imposed a steep tariff on Canadian pork in March 2025, weighing on hog prices. Strong demand has supported prices throughout, as many households have switched to cheaper cuts or pork rather than giving up red meat altogether. Overall, IBISWorld estimates the price of red meat has grown at a compound annual rate of 5.7% over the five years through 2026.