Price of fertilizer in Canada - Data and Analysis (2002-2032)

The price of fertilizer is expected to rise 20.7% to 149.45 in 2026, driven by severe disruptions to global supply. Iran has largely blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Israeli actions against the country began in late February. This has cut off a corridor that carries about one-third of the world's seaborne fertilizer trade, including a large share of global urea exports. The disruption has also constrained shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, raising production costs for manufacturers outside the region. From 2021 to 2026, fertilizer prices have been highly volatile, growing at an annualized rate of 7.2%. Prices surged early in the period as the reopening economy boosted demand, a trend that coincided with rising commodity input prices. A spike in natural gas prices lifted production costs for nitrogen, the most significant single nutrient in fertilizer, which relies on natural gas as its primary feedstock. This squeeze was amplified in 2022 because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Russian energy exports. As a result, prices jumped 30.2% in 2021 and 54.8% in 2022. Prices retreated over the following two years as supply chains stabilized and demand patterns became more predictable. Robust natural gas production in Canada and the US, the main source of Canada's natural gas imports, brought feedstock costs down. Canadian fertilizer prices fell 21.2% in 2023 and 8.2% in 2024. Upward pressure returned with a 4.6% increase in 2025 as China restricted exports of phosphate and urea and US trade policy pushed higher costs down the supply chain. Fluctuations in the value of the Canadian dollar also shaped import costs and export competitiveness, while adverse weather added to price volatility. Overall, prices ended the period well above their 2021 level.