Price of Canadian oil in Canada - Data and Analysis (1990-2032)

In 2026, the price of Western Canadian Select (WCS) crude oil is forecast to average $83.9 per barrel, up 29.1% from 2025. The war with Iran, which began in March, largely halted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and sent global benchmarks to their highest levels since 2022. Prices have swung sharply on ceasefire headlines and renewed threats to shipping, yet constrained Middle East flows and falling global inventories have kept them elevated into the fourth quarter. WCS has captured less of the rally than lighter grades. The heavy oil discount to West Texas Intermediate has widened as Venezuelan barrels returned to US Gulf Coast refineries following Washington's intervention in January, while rising oil sands output has left export pipelines running close to capacity.WCS prices have climbed over the past five years, although the gains have come with extreme volatility. Prices rebounded strongly in 2021 as economies reopened and fuel demand recovered faster than supply. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 then pushed global benchmarks to record highs, as sanctions on Russian crude tightened markets and buyers sought reliable alternatives. Canadian producers lifted output in response, but pipeline bottlenecks forced greater reliance on rail and kept WCS at a steep discount to lighter benchmarks.Prices fell sharply in 2023 as interest rate hikes cooled demand and supply from the United States and other non-OPEC producers expanded. The Trans Mountain Expansion came online in May 2024, giving producers direct tidewater access to Asian and US West Coast refiners. The project narrowed the heavy oil discount and sharply reduced the risk of the price blowouts that had punished producers in earlier years. Even so, the United States remains the dominant buyer, taking 95.7% of Canada's crude oil exports in 2024, which leaves WCS highly exposed to US refinery demand and trade policy.Prices slipped again in 2025. OPEC+ unwound production cuts faster than expected, while US tariffs and retaliatory trade measures clouded the outlook for global growth and fuel demand. Canadian crude was largely shielded by preferential tariff treatment, but trade uncertainty pushed producers and policymakers to pursue new export routes. Policy shifted as well, with Ottawa scrapping the consumer carbon charge and agreeing with Alberta in late 2025 to pursue a new West Coast pipeline in exchange for investment in carbon capture through the Pathways project. Overall, WCS prices are set to have grown at a compound annual rate of 7.1% over the five years through 2026.