Population in Canada - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Canada's total population is projected to stagnate at 41.7 million in 2026, reflecting slowed growth amid lower immigration targets, rising at an overall CAGR of 1.7%. Population change is now dictated almost entirely by federal immigration policy rather than by underlying demographics. Ottawa's commitment to reduce the temporary resident population to below 5.0% of the national total has generated sustained net outflows of study permit and work permit holders, and these departures have overwhelmed permanent resident admissions. Permanent arrivals in the March quarter ran more than a fifth below year-earlier levels, consistent with the lower target set for the calendar year. Natural increase has provided almost no offset, turning negative as deaths exceeded births. Provincial outcomes have diverged sharply, with Alberta still expanding on interprovincial inflows while Ontario and British Columbia shed residents.The past five years contain both the fastest and the weakest population growth in modern Canadian history. Following the reopening of borders, an unprecedented surge in non-permanent residents lifted growth to 2.8% and 3.0% in 2023 and 2024, the strongest pace since the late 1950s, with net inflows of temporary residents approaching 800,000 in the 2023 calendar year alone. Permanent resident admissions also reached a record high in 2024. The temporary resident share of the population climbed from below 4.0% in 2021 to a peak of 7.6% in late 2024, an expansion that strained housing supply, rental markets and public services and prompted a decisive policy reversal.From late 2024 the federal government capped study permits, tightened work permit eligibility and lowered admission targets. Growth halved to under 1.0% in 2025 before turning negative, as quarterly declines in non-permanent residents culminated in the largest drop on record in the September quarter of 2025, driven principally by study permit holders and concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. The swing from record inflows to record outflows within two years makes this the most volatile stretch in the postwar record.Underlying demographics deteriorated independently of policy. The total fertility rate fell to 1.25 children per woman in 2024, a record low that placed Canada among ultra-low fertility nations. Life expectancy recovered toward pre-pandemic levels, and those aged 65 and over reached almost one in five residents.