Percentage of smokers in Canada - Data and Analysis (1999-2032)

The percentage of smokers in Canada is set to fall to 10.1% in 2026. Cigarette prices remain a strong deterrent following steady increases in federal excise duty, which is now indexed to inflation each year, along with higher provincial tobacco taxes. Elevated living costs and economic uncertainty tied to the trade dispute with the United States are also squeezing household budgets and pushing some smokers to cut back or quit. Alternatives continue to draw adults away from cigarettes, with vapes and nicotine pouches offering lower-risk ways to consume nicotine. Health Canada's January progress report on the Canada Tobacco Strategy warned that the country is on track to narrowly miss its 2035 target, adding pressure for further action. However, a growing contraband market is undercutting the effect of higher taxes by giving price-sensitive smokers access to cheap illegal cigarettes.The percentage of smokers has fallen over the five years through 2026, extending a decline that began when national tracking started more than two decades ago. Greater awareness of the links between smoking and cancer, heart disease and respiratory illness has been the main driver, reinforced by smoke-free rules in workplaces, public spaces and a growing share of homes. Youth smoking has dropped to record lows, meaning fewer new smokers are entering the population to replace those who quit.Policy has played a central role. Canada became the first country to require health warnings printed directly on individual cigarettes, with the rollout beginning in 2023 and covering all products by 2025. These rules build on plain packaging requirements introduced in 2019 and graphic warnings that cover most of the pack. The 2024 federal budget also raised the excise duty on cigarettes, lifting shelf prices further.Alternatives have reshaped the market. E-cigarettes have become popular among younger adults, while Health Canada approved nicotine pouches as a cessation aid in 2023. Concerns about their appeal to youth prompted 2024 restrictions that limited pouch sales to pharmacies and restricted flavours. Legal cannabis has also given some consumers a different product to smoke.The pandemic caused some volatility early in the period. Health fears encouraged many smokers to quit, while stress and more time at home led others to smoke more often. In 2025, a court approved a settlement requiring the three largest tobacco companies to pay billions of dollars to provinces, territories and smokers, keeping the health harms of smoking in public view.