Number of motor vehicle registrations in Canada - Data and Analysis (1999-2032)

Motor vehicle registrations in Canada are forecast to rise 2.9% to 40.0 million in 2026, as Canadians hold on to their vehicles longer even as new vehicle sales cool. Buyers face a tougher market than in 2025. US tariffs on Canadian-built vehicles have disrupted supply chains and lifted sticker prices, while elevated monthly payments stretch household budgets. The Bank of Canada has held interest rates steady since late 2025, leaving little room for cheaper auto financing. A shrinking population also narrows the pool of new drivers. Even so, registrations keep climbing because they measure the entire fleet, not just new purchases. With new vehicles costing more, owners are delaying replacement and keeping older vehicles on the road, slowing the rate at which registrations expire. Sport utility vehicles and crossovers continue to dominate the light-duty fleet, while electric vehicles make up a small but growing share.Motor vehicle registrations have climbed at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2026, though growth has been uneven. Supply shortages set the tone early in the period. A global semiconductor shortage squeezed vehicle production, leaving dealer lots thin and forcing many would-be buyers to wait. As older vehicles were scrapped faster than new ones arrived, registrations slipped in 2022 and 2023. At the same time, the Bank of Canada's aggressive rate hikes pushed up auto loan costs, steering budget-conscious buyers toward the used market.Registrations rebounded as supply normalized. Automakers restored production, dealers rebuilt inventories and incentives returned, unleashing pent-up demand and lifting new vehicle sales sharply in 2024. Strong demand for pickup trucks, SUVs and crossovers led the recovery. Administrative changes amplified that rebound, as Ontario's automatic registration renewal program, introduced in mid-2024, kept more vehicles on the books.Financing and trade policy have shaped the final stretch of the period. The Bank of Canada's rate cuts from mid-2024 to late 2025 lowered borrowing costs, and the threat of US tariffs prompted many Canadians to buy ahead of expected price increases, pushing new vehicle sales to their highest level in six years in 2025. Electric vehicle adoption has also accelerated, with battery electric and plug-in hybrid models steadily gaining share of new registrations, though the pause of federal purchase rebates in early 2025 slowed momentum.