Net gasoline sales in Canada - Data and Analysis (1987-2032)

Net gasoline sales in Canada are expected to reach 41.7 billion litres in 2026, representing a 2.3% decline from 2025. Continued blockages in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to reduce gasoline sales. Key routes have been intermittently shut down and facilities have been taken offline, increasing risk premiums on crude shipments from the region. These physical supply losses have tightened global markets. Higher prices have encouraged consumers to cut back on discretionary trips, combine errands and shift to public transit where available. A softer labour market has added to this pressure, as job losses in August and September have reduced commuting and squeezed household budgets. Gasoline sales increased from 2021 to 2026. Sales rebounded in the early half of the period from lows in 2020, as people began driving again as restrictions lifted, and fewer people worked from home. Still, hybrid work models and increased purchases of electric vehicles kept sales below their pre-pandemic levels. The spike in fuel prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 also tempered growth. Growth moderated throughout the latter half of the period as electric vehicle purchases rose, aided by government rebates for zero-emission vehicles. Better fuel efficiency in each new gas-powered model also limited how much fuel each vehicle used. Macro trends in this period include the removal of the consumer carbon tax in April 2025, which was a tax levied on the carbon content of fuel. This led to gasoline purchases at rates similar to pre-pandemic levels. Macroeconomic conditions, such as a softer job market and reduced populations because of curbed immigration, have also contributed to ebbs and flows in demand. Policy changes such as federal rebates for electric vehicles have also accelerated the shift away from gasoline-powered cars.