Total value of world trade in Australia - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

The total value of world trade is estimated to reach $35.7 trillion in 2026, up 9.7% from the previous year. This high growth is driven by the ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the US-Israeli actions on Iran. As a result, the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for about one-fourth of global oil shipments, has effectively been closed, albeit temporarily. This has driven up oil prices as the market has been pricing in expectations of a future shortage. Rising energy costs have inflated global trade as importers pay more for essential energy supplies. Over the five years to 2026, the value of world trade has experienced significant volatility. In 2021, world trade saw a sharp 25.6% rebound, increasing to $28.1 trillion as economies reopened and demand surged following pandemic-induced contractions. This upswing was amplified by pent-up demand and improvements in global vaccination rates, though supply-side bottlenecks, particularly in semiconductor chips and electrical components, constrained production throughout the supply chain. These issues were compounded by the resurgent coronavirus variants in late 2021 and early 2022, which stalled some economic reopening and delayed broader global recovery.The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in March 2022 generated fresh headwinds. Sanctions on Russia and disruptions in global wheat, barley and sunflower supplies inflated commodity prices and exacerbated existing supply chain challenges. Despite these obstacles, trade rose 12.5% in 2022, underpinned by resilient consumer spending and business activity. Nonetheless, growth decelerated in 2023 amid persistent global tensions and an unsettled macroeconomic environment, driving trade values down by 1.8%. The value of world trade rebounded by 4.3% in 2024. In 2025, values grew by 0.5%, as economic rebounds were threatened by global trade uncertainty and rising geopolitical tensions. As tensions rise between Russia, China and Western nations, trade has been affected significantly. Meanwhile, in 2025, the Trump administration introduced tariffs that have led to significant uncertainty. However, trade deals between the US and regions such as Japan and the European Union have helped to sustain trade.Significant macroeconomic trends during the current period include strong trade growth by developing economies, particularly in East Asia and Africa. South-South trade has also seen strong growth over the past five years, and this is expected to continue, reinforcing regional trade dynamics. Rapid expansion in automation and AI has supported strong trade growth in high-value goods such as semiconductors, batteries and AI hardware. However, higher public and private debt, particularly in developing economies, has continued to weaken import demand.