Rice production in Australia - Data and Analysis (1975-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts that rice production will fall by 21.9% in 2026-27 to 139.00 kilotonnes. Rice production is highly reliant on water, with allocations from water authorities largely dictating how much rice farmers can grow. This follows a 2025-26 harvest of around 178 kilotonnes, the smallest crop since the 2019-20 drought. The slump has come from fewer hectares planted rather than poorer crops, with yields holding at around 10 tonnes per hectare while the area sown is expected to shrink from 47,700 hectares in 2024-25 to 14,500 hectares in 2026-27. NSW Murray and Murrumbidgee general security allocations opened the 2026-27 water year at 0% and had only reached 18% and 34% by September, the key month for planting decisions. In dry years, many growers sell their limited water or use it on less water-intensive crops instead. Unless water supply conditions improve quickly, a further contraction in rice acreage appears set, underscoring a growing trend in which scarce irrigation resources are directed towards crops with higher financial returns.Rice production is highly volatile since rice is a heavily water-reliant crop. Water authorities, like the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, allocate water permits to farmers to restrict their use of water from river systems in agriculture. This system is designed to protect Australia's water systems and ensure that the amount of water used each year is sustainable. The amount of water allocated to farmers each year varies with the rainfall that has already occurred and is expected to occur over the next 12 months.Rice production in Australia is projected to decline at an annualised rate of 27.4% over the five years through 2026-27, reflecting a volatile period characterised by shifting water management and seasonal variability. Above-average rainfall during La Niña events from 2020 to early 2023 filled storages and lifted output to 691.4 kilotonnes in 2021-22, but drier conditions have since drawn storages down and water buybacks under the Murray-Darling Basin Plan have permanently reduced the water available to annual crops like rice. Given that nearly all rice in New South Wales is irrigated using basin water, these policies have had a pronounced impact. The smaller crop is weighing on the wider supply chain. ABARES expects the gross value of rice production to fall from $212.4 million in 2024-25 to $61.1 million in 2026-27. Exports are forecast to drop by 36.8%, and SunRice has cut 78 jobs and scaled back its Deniliquin and Leeton mills. This pattern underlines the ongoing vulnerability of Australian rice to both climatic and economic pressures.