Realised farm income in Australia - Data and Analysis (1960-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts realised farm income to plunge 14.0% in 2026-27, to $24.6 billion. This follows surging growth over the two years through 2025-26. According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), wheat and barley production is projected to plunge as drought conditions in Queensland and New South Wales set in. Beef cattle slaughter numbers are also projected to fall, along with saleyard prices, dragging down farm revenue. Farm costs are also rising, driven by rising interest rates and increased capital expenditure in recent years as output has expanded.Turmoil in global commodity markets, combined with volatile weather conditions, has generated significant volatility in realised farm incomes in Australia over the past decade. Weather conditions, like the level of annual rainfall, have a significant effect on production volumes and farm earnings. Australian agriculture faced tremendous fluctuation as a result of the country's variable weather patterns. After a prolonged La Nina weather system, crop output plummeted in 2023-24 following the emergence of an El Nino weather pattern which slashed crop yields. While some northern and western regions received above-average rainfall in early 2025, which aided pasture growth and winter crop germination, large areas of southern New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia experienced below-average rainfall and ongoing dry conditions, jeopardising timely crop planting. As a result, agricultural production and farm incomes remain unequal, with prospects for higher output in certain locations but ongoing problems and probable production losses in others, emphasising climate variability's continued impact. Production volumes soared in these years, while turmoil in global supply chains fostered a surge in prices. Together, these trends generated an unprecedented surge in realised farm incomes.Overall, heavy rainfall boosts output and yields, supporting dramatic increases in realised farm incomes. However, in some cases, heavy rainfall can disrupt farmers' output, including during major flooding events in 2022 and 2023. In addition, global food supply chains gradually rebuilt capacity following the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, placing downward pressure on commodity prices. Crop production volumes soared over the two years through 2025-26, following the sharp drop in 2023-24. However, rising output led to falling prices. This has weighed on the value of farm production. While prices eased, particularly for crops, farm costs continued to rise, which fostered a sharp trend reversal in realised farm incomes in 2022-23 and 2023-24.Although realised farm incomes have faced significant volatility over the past five years, export demand has grown amid supply shocks in the global food supply chain. In 2024-25 and 2025-26, export demand for livestock and livestock products reached record values. Rapidly rising incomes in developing economies, particularly China, have made it possible for consumers in these countries to purchase Australian food products, which benefit from an international reputation for high quality. Favourable rainfall in regions like New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia resulted in a significant rise in national winter crop production. However, the surge in output resulted in a drop in wheat prices, constraining revenue. Rising farm costs have also weighed on realised farm income over the period, driven by the sharp rise in interest rates. The US-Israel conflict with Iran has placed upward pressure on farm costs in the current year. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts realised farm income to fall at a compound annual rate of 2.1% over the five years through 2026-27.