Population aged 14 and younger in Australia - Data and Analysis (1971-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to drop by 0.2% during 2026-27, to 4,782,704 people. This decline reflects a birth rate that is unable to meet the demands of replacing the cohort of 15 year olds that are leaving the demographic. An expected sharp contraction in net migration will also reduce the number of people aged 14 and younger entering the country, further limiting growth in the demographic's population.Over the past five years, the population aged 14 and younger has trended upwards, albeit at a far slower rate than the average of the past decade. Over the longer term, strong growth in the number of births since 2008-09 has bolstered the number of people in this age group. An overall increase in net migration prior to COVID-19 pandemic also contributed to steady growth in younger Australians. Ongoing declines in the child mortality rate in Australia is another long-term factor contributing to growth in this population segment.In 2020-21, the population segment declined for the first time since 1986-87, as net migration was significantly constrained, due to border closures, which prevented many workers and migrants, many of which have young families, from coming to Australia. More recently, cost-of-living pressures have deterred young parents from having children, causing the growth rate in the number of people aged 14 and below to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Housing shortages and high inflation have added further complications, which has weighed on growth in this population segment. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the population aged 14 and younger to grow at a compound annual rate of 0.1% over the five years through 2026-27. This annualised growth rate has trailed the total population significantly, resulting in the share of the population aged 14 and under falling from 18.3% in 2021-22 to 17.1% in 2026-27.