Number of vocational students in Australia - Data and Analysis (1981-2033)

IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students to hike by 1.5% in 2026 to reach 1.35 million people, reflecting continued labour market change, skill shortages and increased government-sponsored training incentives. Demand continues strong as the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% in August 2025 and firms in construction, healthcare and IT suffer significant worker shortages. State and federal subsidies, fee-free programmes and focused paths targeting in-demand skills have increased, making vocational training a more appealing alternative for job searchers and those looking to change careers. Government measures to promote the skilled workforce, including new initiatives in Fee-Free TAFE and sector-specific awards have supported the number of vocational students even as foreign student limitations and financial allocations pose challenges for some providers.In 2015, NCVER introduced a two-step process to remove duplicate student counts by using unique student identifiers where available and a count of distinct client identifiers within each submission for the residual data. The removal of duplication counts has resulted in a dip in student numbers in the same year. In January 2017, VET Student Loans replaced VET FEE-HELP Loans. The introduction of the VET Student Loans has reduced the number of courses eligible for loans and imposed new and higher requirements on education providers to obtain and maintain registered training organisation status and government subsidies for their courses. This funding arrangement placed downward pressure on demand for VET courses in 2017 and 2018.The value of the Australian dollar is a major factor behind the affordability of education and the growth of international student enrolments. A strong Australian dollar makes studying in Australia more expensive than other countries, while a weaker dollar makes domestic VET courses more affordable. The Australian dollar's appreciation through 2025-26 has pushed down international student enrollment by making studying and living costs more expensive in Australia, thus limiting overseas students.The number of vocational education and training (VET) students has grown in recent years, thanks in part to the uncapping of Commonwealth-funded university spaces, which has encouraged more students to pursue VET programmes. Rising high school retention rates since 2023-24 are exerting downward pressure on vocational enrolment. Because vocational courses do not require completion of Year 12, more students who leave school early are choosing VET to begin their careers, which helps counteract the drop when retention rates climb. IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students in Australia to hike at a compound annual rate of 1.6% over the five years through 2026.