Number of vocational students in Australia - Data and Analysis (1981-2034)

IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students to hike by 5.5% in 2027 to reach 1.15 million people, after three consecutive years of decline. Fee-Free TAFE becomes a permanent part of the VET system in 2027, under legislation passed in 2025 that guarantees at least 100,000 places each year. A softening labour market is also expected to boost enrolments, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.7% in September 2026. As job opportunities tighten, more people tend to turn to training to improve their prospects or change careers. Ongoing skills shortages in construction, healthcare and technology are adding to demand for targeted courses.Government funding and competition from universities have driven sharp swings in student numbers over the past five years. In 2022, a tight labour market drew many people straight into work rather than study. The launch of Fee-Free TAFE in 2023 then sparked a 5.0% jump in student numbers, even as unemployment fell to historic lows. Yet, enrolments fell back from 2024 as that initial boost faded and demand for university courses strengthened, drawing potential students away from VET. Student numbers fell even as the population aged 18 to 25 grew strongly, highlighting a shift in young people's study preferences.Rising school retention has also weighed on student numbers. The share of students staying on to Year 12 has climbed overall over recent years, shrinking the pool of early school leavers, who have traditionally used VET as an entry point into the workforce. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the number of vocational students in Australia to tumble at a compound annual rate of 0.7% over the five years through 2027.