Median age of the population in Australia - Data and Analysis (1971-2034)

IBISWorld expects the median age of the population to rise by 0.18 years in 2026-27, to reach 38.78 years. This increase is expected to be driven by more people transitioning into older age than are expected to be born. The number of births in Australia is expected to be 305,000, while the number of people at each age between 31 and 40 years old is estimated to be over 395,000. This disparity explains the expected growth in Australia's median age in 2026-27.Due to the use of a median measure, the effect of large generations such as the baby boomer generation, which includes people born between 1946 and 1964, no longer significantly contributes to changes in the median age. Only a large generation approaching and surpassing the median age can substantially lift the median age and lead to a period of strong growth. When an arithmetic mean age measure is used, older generations, like baby boomers, have a much greater influence on the measure. Regardless, longer life expectancy, due to medical advancements and healthcare developments, is having the greatest long-term effect on the median age in Australia. As people are living longer, they're spending more time above the median age, placing upward pressure on the measure. Unless birth rates increase significantly, the median age of the population will continue to rise.Over the past five years, the median age of the population has been far more volatile than over the preceding decade. Border restrictions caused net migration to plummet in 2019-20 and fall into negative territory in 2020-21. The pandemic-driven exodus of young international students and foreigners living abroad caused the population's median age to increase by the largest amount over a two-year period since before the 1970s. As restrictions eased and migration rebounded across 2022-23 and 2023-24, the median age of the population fell by 0.17 years, aligning with the measure's underlying long-term growth trajectory. Since pandemic-related shocks have dissipated, the growth rate of the population's median age has reverted to its long-term rate, with annual growth forecast to measure at 0.15 years between 2024-25 and 2026-27. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the median age of the Australian population to increase at an average annual rate of 0.06 years over the five years through 2026-27.