Median age of the population

IBISWorld expects the median age of the population to rise by 0.18 years in 2025-26, to reach 38.62 years. This increase is set to be driven by a larger number of people transitioning into older age compared to the expected number of births. The number of births in Australia is expected to be 287,300, while the number of people at each age between 31 and 40 years old is estimated to be over 395,000. This disparity indicates the reason behind the growth in the expected expansion in Australia's median age in 2025-26.

Due to the use of a median measure, the effect of large generations such as the baby boomer generation, which includes people born between 1946-47 and 1964-65, no longer significantly contributes to changes in the median age. Only a large generation approaching and surpassing the median age can lift the median age substantially and result in a period of strong growth. When an average age measure is used, older generations such as the baby boomers have a much greater influence on the measure. Regardless, longer life expectancies, due to medical advancements and healthcare developments, are having the largest long-term effect on the median age in Australia. As people are living longer, they are spending more time above the median age, placing upwards pressure on the measure. Unless birth rates increase significantly, the median age of the population will continue to rise.

Over the past five years, the median age of the population has been far more volatile than over the preceding decade. Border restrictions caused net migration to plummet in 2019-20 and fall negative in 2020-21. The exodus of young international students and foreigners living abroad caused by the pandemic resulted in the median age of the population expanding by the largest amount over a two year period since the late 1990s. As restrictions eased and migration rebounded across 2022-23 and 2023-24, the median age of the population fell by 0.17 years, marking a re-alignment with the measure's underlying long-term growth trajectory. With pandemic-related shocks having dissipated, the growth rate in the median age of the population has reverted to long-term growth rates across 2024-25 and 2025-26. Overall, IBISWorld forecasts the median age of the Australian population to increase at an average annual rate of 0.05 years over the five years through 2025-26.