Export price of ferrous scrap metal in Australia - Data and Analysis (2007-2034)

IBISWorld expects the export price of ferrous scrap metal to fall by 0.1% in 2026-27, to $599.34 per tonne. Ferrous scrap export prices are heavily influenced by steel prices in global markets. Iron ore and metallurgical coal prices are both projected to ease through 2026-27, following the sharp jump in 2025-26 as tightening conditions are expected to normalise over the year. This is set to place downwards pressure on global steel prices and cause ferrous scrap prices to fall.According to Resources and Energy Quarterly's June 2026 issue, both global steel production and global consumption are set to expand over 2026-27, while domestic steel production is set to slow, weakening ferrous scrap prices. Persisting inflationary pressures and elevated interest rates, as the effects of the Middle East conflict flow through the Australian economy, will continue to weigh on key downstream markets like manufacturing, construction and real estate. Meanwhile, the oversupply of steel in China's real estate sector will continue to dampen global steel demand, exerting downwards pressure on ferrous scrap export prices.Exports of ferrous scrap metal from Australia are primarily destined for Asia, with exports to India rising in recent years, supported by the Indian Government's zero tariffs on ferrous scrap. Other destinations include China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand, which typically account for almost 80% of ferrous scrap exports by volume and value. Export volumes of ferrous scrap have fluctuated over the past decade, peaking at 3.07 million tonnes in 2023-24. Export volumes have inched upwards over the past five years, limited by slowing economic growth in major steel-consuming countries like China and geopolitical and trade tensions.Global steel, iron ore, and metallurgical coal prices have exhibited significant volatility as external events have disrupted supply and demand. Ferrous scrap export prices were elevated at the beginning of the five-year period, as the Russia-Ukraine war shot up the price of energy, lifting steel production costs and putting upwards pressure on ferrous scrap prices in 2021-22. Normalising conditions and an oversupply in the international market, as global iron ore projects came online, caused prices to fall in the following years. Meanwhile, Australia imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese steel products in early 2026 to counter low-cost imports, helping drive demand for ferrous scrap and partly cushioning the decline in ferrous scrap prices. Overall, IBISWorld expects the export price of ferrous scrap metal to decline at a compound annual rate of 1.8% over the five years through 2026-27, coming off a high base year.