Domestic price of paper products and paperboard in Australia - Data and Analysis (1997-2034)

IBISWorld expects the domestic price of paper products and paperboard to fall by 0.7% in 2026-27, to 146.4 index points. This decline reflects the market's ongoing correction from the price surge in late 2022-23, which occured due to elevated global wood pulp prices, energy costs and freight charges. The correction has been limited, rather than reversed, by recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have lifted energy and logistics costs and encouraged upstream wood pulp producers to pass through higher costs to paper product and paperboard manufacturers. At the same time, an ongoing dip in the world price of wood pulp is expected to place renewed pressure on domestic paper and paperboard prices downwards. The domestic market behaves as a price taker for pulp-intensive products because local producers compete against imports and have the option to export into global markets, contributing to the alignment of domestic and global prices.Demand for paper products has fluctuated over the past five years, although it has trended downwards overall. The performance of pulp, paper and paperboard manufacturers has been affected by the contraction of major downstream markets, like the printing and publishing industries, as more consumers shift from printed reading materials to digital media. Furthermore, increased consumer awareness of environmental issues and trends towards paperless offices have further depleted demand. In response, some domestic manufacturers have developed higher value-added products like recycled and low-chemical papers, which typically attract a premium price.While the domestic price of paper products and paperboard has declined since 2022-23, prices remain significantly higher than pre-COVID levels and have been volatile in recent years. Prices fell slightly in 2023-24 as global pulp prices pulled back from record highs and local buyers completed inventory adjustments after earlier over-purchasing during supply-chain disruptions. However, prices rose again through 2024-25, supported by higher energy and logistics costs and volatile local wood harvests. Overall, the domestic price of paper products and paperboard is expected to increase by a compound annual rate of 3.2% over the five years through 2026-27.