Domestic price of coarse grains in Australia - Data and Analysis (1975-2034)

IBISWorld expects the domestic price of coarse grains to rise by 3.6% in 2026-27, to $324.3 per tonne. Australia's grain sector sells the bulk of its output offshore and with limited leverage over global buyers, local prices tend to move in step with international benchmarks, seasonal outcomes and shifts in buyer demand. A supply glut has been building on the world stage for several years now, pulling grain values lower even as Australian output surged. ABARES data show global coarse-grain output climbed to an all-time high of nearly 1.6 billion tonnes in 2025-26. Locally, growers delivered one of the strongest winter harvests on record that year, aided by widespread favourable rainfall across cropping regions. Barley was the standout performer, with national output climbing to an unprecedented 16.3 million tonnes; maize, oats and triticale crops also posted solid gains over the same period.That production strength flowed directly into export markets. Shipments of Australian barley reached record volumes in 2025-26, with China absorbing the lion's share as it reasserted its position as the world's largest buyer of feed grains. This abundance of supply, both domestically and abroad, proved a double-edged sword: while it lifted farmgate revenue through higher volumes, it also created oversupplied international markets that dragged on the price Australian exporters could command through the year.The relationship with China has been a defining feature of the past several seasons. Canberra-Beijing relations soured in mid-2020, when China slapped an 80.5% tariff on Australian barley, effectively locking growers out of what had previously been their most lucrative export destination for roughly three years. That barrier came down in August 2023, and the recovery in Chinese buying has since been swift and substantial, with China once again taking in the majority of Australia's barley exports. Elsewhere, Australian barley has carved out a stronger foothold in markets like Saudi Arabia, benefiting from export restrictions imposed by rival suppliers Russia and Argentina.Price volatility has been the hallmark of this market, largely because coarse grains remain acutely sensitive to weather shocks in any major growing region. Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent shockwaves through global grain supply chains, sparking a sharp price surge through 2022-23. Since then, the market has swung the other way: a steady rebuild of global stockpiles, paired with bumper harvests in Australia and abroad, has pushed prices lower over the two years to 2025-26. Taken together, IBISWorld forecasts the domestic price of coarse grains to rise at a compound annual rate of 0.8% over the five years through 2026-27.