Aggregate private investment in the US - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Aggregate private investment is estimated to reach $4.7 trillion in 2026, representing a growth of 6.5% from 2025, driven mostly by a surge in investment into AI infrastructure. Growth is also sustained by several new tax changes for businesses implemented by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), including tax breaks for investment spending and 100.0% bonus depreciation on qualifying equipment. However, positive momentum is counterbalanced by heightened inflationary pressures due to ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, both of which have raised energy prices. Businesses and consumers are responding to ongoing price uncertainty and global economic volatility with caution, keeping the growth rate of aggregate private investment moderate.Over the five years leading to 2026, aggregate private investment has grown at an uneven pace. In 2021, a robust economic rebound and low mortgage rates spurred significant growth in residential construction, supporting a 9.0% annual climb. Investment continued to grow in 2022 by 6.1%, despite high interest rates instituted by the Federal Reserve, as confidence in the underlying economy sustained private investment growth. However, persistently high interest rates in 2023 tempered further growth, with aggregate private investment increasing only marginally by 0.8% as tighter monetary policy took effect. The Federal Reserve's incremental interest rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 provided some relief, but the benefits have been gradual, with investment growing 3.0% in 2024. Growth in business investment in 2025 was largely driven by AI investment, with AI accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Macroeconomic headwinds like rapidly changing monetary policies, supply chain volatility and shifting corporate confidence have dominated the investment environment throughout this period. Business investment, comprising 60.0% to 80.0% of aggregate private investment, has been highly sensitive to borrowing costs and long-term policy risks. Large swings in energy prices and global commodity markets have influenced nonresidential investment, while the residential segment expanded during low interest rates but plateaued as borrowing became costlier. Overall, aggregate private investment grew at an annualized rate of 3.6% from 2021 to 2026.