Value of nonresidential construction in Canada - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Non-residential construction value in Canada is forecast to fall 2.4% to $188.2 billion in 2026, as elevated input costs and the early, still-limited stage of a renewed federal infrastructure push weigh on new project starts. Steel and aluminum tariffs, in place since 2025, are estimated to have already lifted construction materials costs by roughly 9.2%, prompting some developers to defer new commercial and industrial starts. The Build Communities Strong Fund, a $51.0 billion, ten-year federal infrastructure commitment launched in April, has yet to meaningfully lift construction activity, with most of its funding scheduled to flow over the coming decade rather than this year. Meta's decision to break ground on a $13.0 billion data centre campus north of Edmonton, Alberta, in July points to renewed industrial-building momentum taking hold, while a broader turning point in Canada's office and industrial property markets — where national vacancy rates for both segments declined simultaneously for the first time since 2020 — positions the sector for a firmer rebound in 2027. Non-residential construction has followed an uneven, multi-phase recovery over the past five years. The rebound got off to a slow start, with real investment growing just 1.9% to a pandemic-depressed $162.8 billion in 2021, as supply chain disruptions, labor shortages and lingering restrictions constrained early gains. Momentum then accelerated through the following two years, with annual growth climbing into the high single digits as deferred projects moved forward and public-sector infrastructure spending ramped up, propelling construction value to a five-year high of $183.5 billion and reflecting the federal government's Investing in Canada infrastructure plan, new hospital and transit builds breaking ground and warehouse construction responding to e-commerce logistics demand. That acceleration cooled as the Bank of Canada's earlier tightening cycle kept borrowing costs elevated, weighing on investment decisions even after the central bank began cutting rates in mid-2024. Commercial office construction was cancelled or postponed amid persistently high vacancy, while industrial development moderated from its exceptional prior pace as absorption slowed and available space accumulated, pushing full-year growth down to 1.4% and construction value to $186.0 billion. Since then, the office and industrial property markets have started to turn. National vacancy rates for both segments declined simultaneously for the first time since 2020, as returning office attendance and a near-halt in new office construction, combined with tightening industrial absorption, eroded the oversupply built up during the pandemic recovery. Non-residential construction value has increased at a compound annual rate of 2.9% since 2021.