Value of nonresidential construction in Canada - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

Non-residential construction value in Canada is projected to rise by 0.7% in 2026, supported by a combination of expanding infrastructure pipelines and targeted public funding. ReNew Canada reports that the value of Canadian infrastructure developments has reached about $43.0 billion, reflecting robust activity across energy, transit, and building projects that are attracting both public and private capital. This backdrop is being reinforced by the Carney government's Build Communities Strong Fund, launched in 2026, which allocates nearly $51.0 billion from the previous year's federal budget to essential infrastructure over the longer term. The program is initially prioritizing community centres but is also expected to channel funds toward colleges, training institutions, and medical facilities, broadening the base of non-residential projects. On the private-sector side, rising demand for digital services is spurring new data-center developments in provinces such as Alberta, with several builds scheduled to start in 2026, further lifting overall non-residential construction value.Institutional construction has emerged as the strongest performer within the non-residential segment, supported by government infrastructure commitments and healthcare system capacity needs. Commercial construction showed more modest gains in the first quarter, constrained by continued weakness in office building construction as remote work trends persist and vacancy rates remain elevated in major markets. Industrial construction advanced in the first quarter, though subsequent months have shown more mixed performance as warehouse and logistics facility development moderates from the exceptional levels of 2023-2024.The past five years have been characterized by volatility driven first by the recovery trajectory across different subsectors. Recovery proved sluggish initially, with activity advancing just 1.9% in 2021 to $162.8 billion as supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and lingering pandemic restrictions constrained progress.Momentum accelerated in 2022-2023 as deferred projects moved forward and public sector infrastructure investment ramped up substantially. Construction value increased 6.6% in 2022 to $173.5 billion, then advanced another 5.7% in 2023 to reach $183.5 billion—the highest level since 2016 and marking a partial recovery from the post-oil price collapse lows. This growth was driven by multiple factors including federal "Investing in Canada" infrastructure commitments beginning to flow to projects, major institutional builds including hospitals and transit facilities breaking ground, and industrial warehouse construction responding to e-commerce logistics demand.However, the recovery slowed in 2024 as the Bank of Canada's aggressive monetary tightening cycle weighed on investment decisions. Construction value increased 1.4% to $186.0 billion as commercial office projects were cancelled or postponed due to persistently elevated vacancy rates, while retail construction remained subdued reflecting the ongoing shift toward e-commerce. Industrial construction showed particular volatility, with 96 projects totaling 17.8 million square feet under construction in late 2024, though 77% of this space remained available for lease due to diminished demand and oversupply concerns. The value of nonresidential construction increased CAGR 3.6% through end of 2026.