S&P/TSX Composite in Canada - Data and Analysis (1980-2032)

The S&P/TSX Composite Index has grown 10.1% year to date through September 2026, growing at a CAGR of 10.5% over the five years through 2026, assuming 10.1% growth for all of 2026. Materials and energy stocks have led gains through most of the year. Gold prices have remained elevated amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker US dollar, lifting gold miners, while conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices sharply higher and boosted oil and gas producers. Strong quarterly earnings from the big banks also helped the index reach record highs in late summer. However, the index is expected to give back some of these gains by year-end. Trade talks with the United States collapsed in August, prompting steep new US tariffs and Canadian countermeasures. Surging long-term bond yields have also weighed on interest-sensitive bank stocks and stretched equity valuations, while gold miners have retreated from their highs.The S&P/TSX Composite Index has posted strong but uneven growth over the past five years. The index is heavily weighted toward the financial, energy and materials sectors, making it highly sensitive to commodity prices and interest rates. The index climbed in 2021 as vaccine rollouts and economic reopening revived corporate earnings and investor confidence.Performance reversed in 2022. Surging inflation prompted the Bank of Canada to raise its policy rate aggressively, pushing up bond yields and lowering equity valuations. Russia's invasion of Ukraine added volatility, although a spike in oil and gas prices limited losses by boosting energy stocks. Growth was muted in 2023, as higher borrowing costs weighed on banks and real estate stocks and investors shifted toward fixed income products offering higher yields.The index rebounded sharply in 2024 as inflation eased and the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates. Banks, technology firms and gold miners drove gains. Growth accelerated in 2025, despite US tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber. Record gold prices lifted mining stocks, while global investors diversified away from US assets and favored Canadian equities. The CUSMA exemption shielded most Canadian exports from tariffs, easing fears of a broad economic downturn. This momentum carried into 2026, with elevated commodity prices pushing the index to record highs before trade tensions and rising bond yields slowed its advance.