Domestic price of wheat feed

IBISWorld forecasts that the domestic price of wheat feed in Australia will climb by 4.1% to approximately $372.1 per tonne in 2025-26, reflecting a market where strong production has been offset by cost and demand-side pressures. According to ABARES's March 2026 Crop Report, national wheat production is forecast to reach 36.0 million tonnes in 2025-26, 24% above the 10-year average, which would place meaningful downwards pressure on prices throughout the year. According to Cargill's October 2025 Mixed Market Outlook, below-average summer rainfall across southern NSW reduced pasture availability, prompting livestock producers to increase supplementary feeding and sustain domestic demand at elevated levels. As further indicated by Cargill, as the harvest progressed into late 2025, growers proved reluctant to sell at prevailing prices, restricting the volume of grain reaching domestic buyers and preventing the large crop from fully flowing through to lower prices. Entering 2026, the escalating Middle East conflict pushed crude oil and international shipping costs higher, increasing the delivered cost of grain across domestic supply chains and providing an additional floor under wheat feed prices. Collectively, these demand pressures, supply-side restraint and rising input costs are outweighing the bearish price influence of a large national harvest. This has underpinned modest price growth in 2025-26.

The domestic price of wheat feed exhibits considerable volatility, primarily from supply and demand fluctuations driven by variable weather conditions. Demand for wheat feed increases significantly during periods of below-average rainfall, which degrades pasture feed quality, compelling livestock farmers to purchase additional wheat feed. This drives up demand and prices. Concurrently, low rainfall hampers wheat feed production, further exacerbating price increases. Conversely, favourable weather conditions enhance pasture quality, reducing wheat feed dependency and lowering prices.

Looking back over the past five or so years, weather conditions have been mixed. From mid-2020 to the end of 2022, Australia experienced La Niña events, leading to increased rainfall, higher wheat yields and generally lower wheat feed prices. However, global factors, including supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, counteracted these domestic effects, elevating prices in 2022 and 2023. In 2023-24, developing El Niño conditions led to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in Australia, resulting in lower domestic wheat yields. Despite reduced domestic production typically leading to higher prices, the increased global supply from other countries (including Russia and Argentina) is contributed to a price decline in 2024-25. Overall, IBISWorld anticipates that the domestic price of wheat feed will rise at an annualised rate of 2.5% over the five years through 2025-26, reflecting a combination of global supply adjustments and domestic production fluctuations driven by weather patterns.