World price of natural gas in Australia - Data and Analysis (1992-2032)

In 2026, the world price of natural gas is expected to grow 21.7% to reach $11.21 per MMBtu, as the recent conflict in Iran has disrupted the supply of this already appreciating commodity. The conflict effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to traffic; a June memorandum of understanding looked like it may reopen the strait, but hostilities have resumed in July. Before the closure, about a fifth of the world's LNG traveled through the Strait of Hormuz, largely from Qatar. Closure of the Strait stands to have a lasting impact on the global natural gas market; the new reality where a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a real possibility will have a lasting impact on risk analysis of the region. This forecast assumes that European and Asian natural gas markets will be particularly affected by this shock in 2026, while the US natural gas market will be more exposed to other factors, including a particularly cold winter leaving storage more depleted than anticipated. The conflict has indeed widened spreads between US and international prices, as US LNG export facilities have been operating at capacity, putting an upper limit on how much relief US exports can provide to global markets.The five-year period from 2021 to 2026 witnessed extraordinary volatility in global natural gas prices, with a compound annual growth rate of -2.5% that masks dramatic year-to-year swings. The COVID-19 pandemic drove prices to historic lows in 2020, with the composite world price averaging just $3.22 per MMBtu as demand collapsed and storage capacity approached limits. The subsequent recovery was explosive, with prices surging to $12.74 per MMBtu in 2021 as post-pandemic demand rebounded, inventory levels remained depleted and supply chains struggled to normalize.The 2022 energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent curtailment of pipeline gas exports to Europe drove world gas prices to unprecedented heights, peaking at $25.78 per MMBtu. European spot prices briefly exceeded $70 per MMBtu during peak crisis periods as the continent scrambled to replace Russian pipeline supplies with LNG imports. The crisis fundamentally reshaped global gas trade flows, with Europe pivoting to LNG and becoming the price-setter in global markets. U.S. LNG exports surged to meet European demand, with over half of Europe's LNG supplies originating from U.S. facilities by October 2025.Prices moderated sharply in 2023 and 2024 as European storage was replenished, demand destruction occurred due to high prices, and milder winter weather reduced heating requirements. The composite world price declined to $9.67 per MMBtu in 2023 and further to $8.34 per MMBtu in 2024. However, prices have rebounded in 2025 to $9.46 per MMBtu, driven by Europe's continued strong LNG import appetite, which reached a seven-month peak of 10.63 million tons in October 2025. Asian demand has shown weakness, particularly from China, the world's largest LNG buyer.