World price of coking coal in Australia - Data and Analysis (1995-2032)

The world price of coking coal is climbing again in 2026, rising 18.2% to reach $156.43 per short ton after three consecutive years of decline. This rebound reflects renewed demand momentum from China and India, the world's two largest steel producers, as both economies ramp up imports following a period of subdued industrial activity. Chinese steelmakers are restocking inventories after a prolonged destocking cycle, while Indian mills continue expanding blast furnace capacity to meet rising domestic construction and infrastructure projects. Supply-side constraints are compounding the price recovery, as major mining regions scaled back expansion plans amid weak pricing in 2024 and 2025, leaving the seaborne market tighter just as demand returns. This combination of resurgent demand and constrained supply marks a clear turning point after the steep declines that defined the prior two years. Over the past five years, the world price of coking coal has swung dramatically, driven first by an extraordinary surge and then by a sustained correction. Pandemic-related economic recovery and massive infrastructure stimulus programs, particularly in China, created a significant supply-demand imbalance early in the period, setting prices on an upward trajectory. That imbalance intensified sharply when Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted global coal supply chains, as both nations were significant coal producers and exporters. Sanctions on Russian coal exports created shortages in key markets. Energy security concerns pushed some countries to temporarily increase coal usage. Together, these forces drove prices up 78.8% to $282.38 per short ton in 2022, the highest level of the period.Prices began to correct as supply chains normalized and Chinese steel production growth moderated. Major Australian mining companies had expanded capacity to capture elevated prices, and that additional supply weighed on the market as it came online. The correction deepened further, with prices falling 26.3% to $170.27 in 2024 per short ton amid moderating global steel demand from China, the world's largest steel producer. Prices dropped again the following year, down 22.3%, as economic uncertainty across Europe and parts of Asia dampened industrial activity and a growing shift toward electric arc furnace steelmaking — which uses scrap steel rather than coking coal — further eroded demand in some markets. Despite this multi-year slide, the rebound now underway has left prices down at a 0.2% CAGR since 2021, underscoring how completely the current recovery has offset the intervening downturn.