Average weekly earnings

IBISWorld forecasts average weekly earnings to rise 3.4% during 2025-26 to reach $1,578.88. Unemployment is expected to remain low by historical standards, driving up average weekly earnings. The persistence of a tight labour market and high inflation is set to drive wage growth as more businesses look to lift wages to attract workers, which will contribute to a further rise in average weekly earnings. As outlined by the Fair Work Commission Award, wages are also rising, including a 3.50 per cent increase in the national minimum wage and all modern award wages, effective July 1st, 2025. The national minimum hourly wage will increase from $24.10 to $24.95. This is set to underpin growth in average weekly earnings. However, growth in 2025-26 is likely to be partially limited by an uptick in unemployment, even though it is likely to remain low by historical standards.

Real GDP growth is the main driver of average weekly gross earnings. Despite the pandemic offsetting GDP expansion in 2020-21, real GDP has risen over the past five years, driven by greater government spending and increasing business profit. Average weekly earnings began to soar following eased pandemic restrictions in 2021-22. As economic activity accelerated, international travel resumed and unemployment rates fell sharply. Industries heavily impacted by the pandemic, such as hospitality and tourism, faced acute labour shortages. This, coupled with inflationary pressure and a high number of job vacancies, led to a notable surge in average weekly earnings over recent years. Acute skills shortages in sectors like mining, education, construction, healthcare and aged care have also incentivised several enterprise agreements and nationwide wage hikes for these workers. According to data from the Employee Earnings and Hours survey, workers on enterprise agreements experienced a strong wage growth of 9.6% over the two years through May 2025. Collectively, these factors have boosted average wages over recent years. Despite this upswing, a subsequent rise in unemployment has limited wage growth. According to IBISWorld, average weekly earnings are forecast to increase at a compound annual rate of 4.1% over the five years through 2025-26, indicating a steady upwards trend in earnings.