Price of poultry meat

The price of poultry meat is closely linked with demand for chicken and related goods. The price received for poultry meat rose 74.1% between 2002 and 2010 due to increasing popularity, movement toward premium products and rising input prices. During this time, chicken surpassed beef as the most-consumed meat by Americans. Consumption moved from beef to chicken and other poultry meats because they are lower in total and saturated fat than red meat. According to the USDA, in 2016 (latest data available) Americans consumed 107.0 pounds of red meat per capita and 107.6 pounds of poultry meat per capita. The increased demand naturally drove a rise in poultry prices, particularly at the start of the period. Nonetheless, red meat once again surpassed poultry in consumption in 2017.

The recession restricted consumers' disposable income in 2008 and 2009, causing consumption dips in most products. Poultry consumption, though, declined slower than red meat consumption because poultry products are usually cheaper, so recession-constrained consumers turned more toward poultry for their protein needs. Nonetheless, the price of poultry meat dropped 5.1% in 2009. In addition, fluctuating oil prices affect the price of meat; while oil prices have been declining, they remain high enough to continue to drive ethanol and biodiesel production. Since the fuel demand remained for corn and soybeans, feed prices stayed high. When feed prices are high, livestock inventories become relatively expensive for farmers to carry, forcing them to slaughter at a quicker pace to lower inventories. This inundates the market with meat, lowering prices.

The price returned to stronger growth over 2010 (10.5%), because the improving economy helped drive up consumption and oil prices. Although a slight dip occurred in 2011, the price of poultry grew strongly in 2012 and 2013. This is largely due to the worst drought in more than half a century in the Midwest and Great Plains, which has caused the price of feed to rise substantially, ultimately dropping the supply of poultry and pushing prices upward.

However, in spite of a decline in the price of feed and falling oil prices in the latter half of 2014, the price of poultry meat increased 6.5% that year. In 2015, the price of poultry meat declined 12.8%, partly due to the domestic market being inundated with an excess supply of poultry. Due to some countries implementing Highly Pathogenic Avian Influence (HPAI)-related restrictions, global demand for US poultry exports has declined, keeping the domestic poultry supply high, thus causing the price of poultry to decline. Over 2018, prices increased 1.8%, before falling an expected 7.5% in 2019.

The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic severely affected the demand of poultry from both consumers and businesses. This resulted in a 14.5% reduction in the price of poultry in 2020. As vaccines and boosters were administered, an increase in confidence quickly changed sentiments towards meat products. A sharp increase in demand for poultry caused prices to spike as supply was constrained. Farmers who had culled their livestock due to the reduced demand in 2020 could not keep up with the overwhelming demand. Demand significantly outpaced supply in 2021 and 2022, causing the price of poultry to rise 38.5% and 42.3% respectively. The supply of poultry is estimated by the USDA to increase sharply in 2023, meeting consumer demand, causing the price of poultry to drop 11.2% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024. The price of poultry meat is expected to increase at an annualized rate of 7.9% to an index value of 325.6.